Grossi still in the race despite the push of two candidates and the doubts by Javier Milei

Rafael Grossi continues his campaign for secretary-general of the United Nations despite growing momentum behind two female candidates and lingering doubts over Argentine President Javier Milei’s international alignment. In the final stretch before the election, an informal straw poll conducted by the Security Council has revealed a shift toward supporting a woman, preferably from Latin America, for the top position within the organization. The results suggest that gender is becoming as influential as professional credentials in shaping the outcome. The Security Council held its first informal survey on Thursday to gauge support for potential successors to Portuguese Secretary-General António Guterres. While such polls are non-binding, they offer insight into emerging trends. The findings indicate a clear preference for a female candidate, particularly one with Latin American roots, reflecting broader shifts in global diplomacy. Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, currently head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), emerged as the leading contender, bolstered by her role in facilitating grain exports from Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war. Guyanese Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett placed second, while Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), came in third, according to the poll released by PassBlue. This aligns with earlier predictions made by Bloomberg. Grossi, known as the “nuclear pope,” has built his reputation around dismantling bureaucratic inertia and aligning the UN with Western priorities, especially those of the United States. His vision emphasizes practical reforms to an institution established after World War II, amid rising global instability and skepticism toward multilateralism. However, the increasing prominence of women in leadership roles suggests a changing landscape, with gender considerations gaining traction among member states. The political context in Argentina also plays a role. Milei’s close ties with the U.S. and Israel, along with his withdrawal from multilateral institutions and controversial votes in the General Assembly, have raised concerns among blocs that hold influence in the selection process, notably African, Arab, and Southern Hemisphere nations. Despite this, Argentina’s official stance remains supportive of Grossi. Nevertheless, diplomats acknowledge that Argentina’s evolving foreign policy could affect some forms of backing as negotiations progress. Meanwhile, the competition among the five permanent members of the Security Council remains open. France appears to be the strongest backer of Grossi, supported by longstanding cooperation in nuclear matters and personal connections between Milei and French President Emmanuel Macron, facilitated by Argentine ambassador Ian Sielecki. China was the only permanent member to publicly express its preference, though the specifics remain unclear. As the race moves forward, further informal surveys are expected, with another poll anticipated in August. Diplomats consulted by Perfil agree that the current result marks a turning point, signaling a growing recognition of women in high-level positions. One veteran diplomat described the outcome as “self-explanatory”, a moment when women’s leadership is finally being acknowledged. The upcoming months will determine whether this trend solidifies or if traditional power structures reclaim dominance. For now, Grossi remains in contention, though the path ahead is increasingly uncertain.