Elections in Brazil 2026: Bolsonarism, waiting for the first results

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term in office on Sunday, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. Final tallies showed Lula receiving 51.52 percent of the vote, totaling 56,506,197 ballots, compared to 48.48 percent for Bolsonaro, who garnered 53,164,037 votes. The victory allows the 81-year-old leader to continue governing until 2030, despite trailing his opponent in the first round held on October 4. Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge the defeat, demanding the annulment of the elections following a last-minute extension of voting hours. The outcome triggered immediate reactions across Argentina’s political spectrum. President Javier Milei, whose administration had hoped for a Bolsonaro victory to facilitate changes in Mercosur trade rules, shared posts alleging that Lula sought to steal the election through the extended voting window. Milei cited a publication claiming the two-hour extension was fraudulent. This sentiment echoed among allies of the ruling coalition. Deputy Lilia Lemoine stated that requests for extra voting time usually indicate fraud. Presidential advisor Santiago Caputo criticized political analysts for shifting narratives, asserting that he alone could predict the future based on inherited talent. He concluded his post by stating everything was proceeding according to plan. Conversely, figures aligned with the center-left celebrated the result. Former President Alberto Fernández posted a message reading "Fight and keep going," a nod to historical Peronist slogans used during periods of exile. He accompanied the text with a screenshot from the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo announcing Lula’s fourth presidency. Former President Cristina Kirchner described the day as an authentic "October 17th," referencing a key date in Peronist history, and congratulated Lula for awakening patriotic sentiment in his seventh presidential bid. Sergio Massa, leader of the Frente Renovador, reaffirmed his support, describing Lula as a worker who built Brazil's middle class and defended national sovereignty. Massa noted that Lula always offered warmth to Argentina. Other supporters included Buenos Aires Senator Malena Galmarini and National Deputy Diego Giuliano, both of whom expressed solidarity with the Brazilian leader. The United for the Homeland party sent a delegation to São Paulo to show support. The election process was marked by tension regarding the voting schedule. The Superior Electoral Court extended voting hours by two hours at the request of Lula’s camp. Lula argued that buses were removed from service in several cities, preventing voters from reaching polling stations. While Flávio Bolsonaro initially requested extensions in specific areas due to heavy rain, his faction opposed a nationwide extension. Campaign manager Rogério Marinho condemned the decision as shameful and untimely, accusing the opposing side of trying to create chaos in an election they had already lost. Some Argentine legislators traveling to Brazil, including Gino Visconti and others from Buenos Aires, had supported the Bolsonaro candidacy, hoping for a shift in regional policy. Background on the race reveals a tight contest. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, led with 47.03 percent of the vote, ahead of Lula’s 45.16 percent. Polls published shortly before the runoff indicated a statistical tie, with some surveys showing a slight edge for Bolsonaro. The campaign featured sharp attacks, with both sides accusing each other of corruption and ties to organized crime. Lula’s strategy shifted after the initial loss, focusing on mass protests under the slogan "Never Again Bolsonaro." These rallies highlighted concerns over the previous administration’s handling of the pandemic, environmental damage to the Amazon, and cuts to public programs. Lula also intensified his presence on social media, purchasing his first mobile phone during the campaign to share videos directly with supporters. Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election, is currently under house arrest for health reasons. His son promised to seek a pardon for him and to remove judge Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the trial, if he had won. Despite the defeat, Bolsonaro maintained that the results could not be recognized due to the procedural changes. He demanded the invalidation of the vote count. Lula, in response, stated that Brazilians voted for the survival of democracy. He pledged stricter regulation of large technology platforms, citing legal complaints against Meta regarding alleged interference in the campaign. International observers noted the significance of the result. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declared that what happened in Brazil would happen in Spain, suggesting a broader political trend. The election took place with over 159 million eligible voters. Participation abroad was notable, with thousands of Brazilians voting in Portugal, particularly in Lisbon, where turnout was expected to exceed the low participation seen in the first round. The winner needed just over 50 percent of valid votes cast, as Brazil uses a direct popular vote system without an electoral college. The result signifies that Brazil rejected a further rightward shift that has affected other Latin American nations in recent years.