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El Niño enters a severe phase: Here's what autumn and winter has in store for Croatia
World🏛️ PoliticsCenter9/4/2026

El Niño enters a severe phase: Here's what autumn and winter has in store for Croatia

The article discusses the intensifying phase of El Niño, which is expected to significantly impact global atmospheric circulation during autumn and winter 2026/27. While El Niño could lead to above-average temperatures in Croatia and the Balkans, its direct effects are uncertain due to dependencies on Atlantic and Mediterranean conditions, cyclone positions, the Gulf Stream, and local topography. Meteorologist Bojan Lipovšćak notes that the region might experience longer dry periods interspersed with heavy rainfall. The phenomenon arises from interactions between ocean currents and atmospheric winds, leading to changes in pressure systems, rainfall patterns, and storm activity worldwide. According to data from August 13, 2026, the Niño-3.4 region showed an anomaly of +1.4°C, with NOAA predicting a high probability of a strong El Niño event, potentially exceeding +2.5°C by December. The article explains that anomalies like +1.5°C indicate deviations from average temperatures rather than absolute values, emphasizing the importance of relative indices such as RONI for tracking El Niño's progression.

El Niño, the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has reached unprecedented intensity, challenging existing climate models and raising concerns among scientists and policymakers worldwide. According to recent assessments by major meteorological agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is more than a 90 percent chance that this year’s El Niño will reach the category of “very strong,” marking one of the most intense episodes since records began in 1950. This development has triggered warnings about potential disruptions to weather patterns, food security, hydroelectric power generation, and public health across multiple regions. The phenomenon entered a critical phase earlier this month, characterized by an accelerated coupling between the ocean and atmosphere. Observations from satellites and ocean buoys show pronounced thermal anomalies in key regions such as Niño 3.4 and Niño 1+2, which are crucial indicators for monitoring El Niño activity. The weakening of trade winds has allowed warmer-than-usual subsurface water to rise to the surface, fueling the event's strength. These conditions have pushed current indices well beyond operational thresholds typically associated with standard El Niño events, placing this episode on track to become one of the most extreme in recorded history. Meteorologists emphasize that the current El Niño is occurring against a backdrop of unprecedented global warming. The July temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific was measured at 1.4 degrees Celsius above average, with some areas in the east exceeding two degrees. This level of warmth, combined with the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere, suggests that the event could last through the winter months and potentially into early spring of 2027. The NOAA predicts a 95 percent probability that El Niño will remain active during the autumn and winter of 2026–2027, with a high likelihood of its influence extending into the following spring. The implications of this powerful El Niño are far-reaching. In South America, particularly in countries like Argentina, the phenomenon is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to the coastal regions of the River Plate basin, including Misiones, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Chaco, and Formosa. These areas face heightened risks of mass evacuations, infrastructure failures, and outbreaks of diseases such as dengue and leptospirosis due to prolonged flooding and stagnant water. Similarly, in Central and South America, the combination of increased precipitation and rising river levels could lead to severe flooding, while other parts of the world may experience droughts and heatwaves. In Europe, the effects of El Niño are less direct but still significant. The Copernicus seasonal forecast indicates a higher probability of unusually warm autumns across much of Europe, with temperatures potentially ranking among the highest 20 percent for this time of year. However, predictions regarding precipitation are less certain. Southern and western Europe might see above-average rainfall, influenced by shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns and interactions with the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. Local factors such as mountain ranges and coastal geography further complicate the picture, leading to alternating periods of dryness and heavy rain in different regions. In Croatia and the broader Balkan region, the impact of El Niño is expected to manifest primarily through changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. While the exact outcomes depend on the state of the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, as well as the positioning of cyclones and jet streams, meteorologists anticipate a mix of warm spells and sudden bursts of rainfall. This variability poses challenges for agriculture, water management, and public health planning. Scientists stress the importance of preparedness and early warning systems in mitigating the potential impacts of this powerful El Niño. The WMO has called for immediate action to safeguard lives and reduce economic damage, emphasizing that even moderate El Niño events can increase the risk of extreme weather phenomena. As the event continues to unfold, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be essential in addressing the complex and evolving consequences of this historic climatic occurrence.

How this report was made. Objective News wrote this report from 6 source articles, using AI-assisted synthesis under our methodology. It is our own text, not a copy of any single outlet. Read our methodology.

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6 reports

The Conversation (AU) logoThe Conversation (AU)IndependentCenterFactual 95Objective 889/4/2026
A record-shattering El Niño is almost here. Here’s what that means for the world’s weather

A record-breaking El Niño event is expected to reach its peak in late 2026, marking the strongest in decades. The United Nations warns that this phenomenon places the planet in a 'danger zone' for extreme weather, driven by unprecedented warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Scientists note that the current El Niño is developing faster and reaching higher intensity than historical averages, partly due to background warming caused by climate change. This event is linked to severe weather impacts globally, including intensified wildfires in Indonesia, increased tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, and potential record-breaking global temperatures in 2027. While Australia is less directly affected, the Bureau of Meteorology predicts stronger weather patterns as the country moves into spring.

Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific findings and expert analyses without overt ideological slant. It discusses the physical mechanisms and global impacts of El Niño, citing multiple authoritative sources like the UN, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. While它

Why factuality (95): The article accurately reports the UN's assessment of the El Niño being the strongest since records began, aligning with the primary source document. It explains the relative index used to measure El Niño strength, which is mentioned in the primary source. The article also mentions the potential imp

Why objectivity (88): The article presents information in a neutral tone, explaining scientific methods and impacts without overt bias. However, it uses emotionally charged phrases such as 'record-shattering' and 'grim prediction,' which slightly reduce objectivity. The focus on potential impacts without balancing with m

tportal logotportalIndependentCenterFactual 95Objective 858/31/2026
El Niño enters a severe phase: Here's what autumn and winter has in store for Croatia

The article discusses the intensifying phase of El Niño, which is expected to significantly impact global atmospheric circulation during autumn and winter 2026/27. While El Niño could lead to above-average temperatures in Croatia and the Balkans, its direct effects are uncertain due to dependencies on Atlantic and Mediterranean conditions, cyclone positions, the Gulf Stream, and local topography. Meteorologist Bojan Lipovšćak notes that the region might experience longer dry periods interspersed with heavy rainfall. The phenomenon arises from interactions between ocean currents and atmospheric winds, leading to changes in pressure systems, rainfall patterns, and storm activity worldwide. According to data from August 13, 2026, the Niño-3.4 region showed an anomaly of +1.4°C, with NOAA predicting a high probability of a strong El Niño event, potentially exceeding +2.5°C by December. The article explains that anomalies like +1.5°C indicate deviations from average temperatures rather than absolute values, emphasizing the importance of relative indices such as RONI for tracking El Niño's progression.

Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific information about El Niño without taking a political stance. It provides balanced explanations of meteorological phenomena, references data from NOAA, and includes quotes from experts without ideological framing. The content focuses on natural climate patterns and is,

Why factuality (95): The article accurately describes the development of El Niño, the weakening of trade winds, and the movement of warm surface waters into the central and eastern Pacific. It correctly references the Niño-3.4 region and the RONI index, aligning precisely with the primary source document. The mention of

Why objectivity (85): The article remains largely objective in presenting the information, though it acknowledges the indirect effects on Croatia and the Balkans, which may introduce a regional focus. Overall, it avoids overtly biased language and provides a balanced view of the situation.

Index.hr logoIndex.hrIndependentCenterFactual 95Objective 858/30/2026
El Niño could be historically strong.

The El Niño phenomenon is intensifying, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimating over a 90% chance that it will become very strong during the fall and winter of 2026–2027. According to the Relative Oscillation Index (RONI), there is a 69% probability that El Niño could reach levels stronger than any recorded since 1950. This development may influence weather patterns globally, with Croatia likely experiencing a warmer autumn, though winter conditions remain uncertain. El Niño forms when trade winds weaken, allowing warm surface water to shift toward the central and eastern Pacific, altering atmospheric pressure, rainfall, and wind patterns worldwide. NOAA predicts this pattern will persist through late 2026, with a high likelihood of continued effects into early 2027. While models suggest above-average temperatures across much of Europe, precipitation forecasts are less reliable due to complex interactions between global climate systems.

Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific data and projections from NOAA and Copernicus, providing balanced information on potential global weather impacts without overtly favoring any political perspective. It does not include opinionated language or biased framing.

Why factuality (95): The article accurately conveys the strengthening of El Niño, the 90%+ probability of it becoming 'very strong,' and the 69% chance of reaching +2.5°C in the RONI index, directly reflecting the primary source. It correctly explains the formation process of El Niño and the significance of the Niño-3.4

Why objectivity (85): The article maintains a neutral tone throughout, focusing on the scientific explanation and projections without injecting personal opinion. It briefly mentions the uncertainty regarding winter conditions in Croatia, which adds balance to the report.

France 24 (English) logoFrance 24 (English)State / PublicCenterFactual 90Objective 859/2/2026
Rare train of cyclones fuelled by historic El Nino make their way across Pacific

A series of powerful cyclones, including two Category 5 hurricanes and a tropical storm, are moving through the Pacific Ocean, fueled by a historically strong El Niño event. The storms are expected to impact areas such as Hawaii, which is still recovering from previous hurricane damage. Climate scientists note that the unusually warm ocean temperatures associated with El Niño create favorable conditions for storm development, leading to increased intensity and frequency of cyclones. This year’s El Niño has a high probability of being the strongest on record and is contributing to extreme weather patterns globally.

Bias read (Center): The article focuses on environmental phenomena, specifically, the impact of El Niño on cyclone formation and global weather patterns. It presents scientific perspectives without overtly favoring any political stance or ideology. There is no mention of political figures, policies, or partisan issues,

Why factuality (90): The article correctly identifies the El Niño as historically strong and links it to the formation of multiple cyclones. It references the National Hurricane Center and quotes a climate scientist, which supports its factual claims. The mention of the 2015 El Niño event adds historical context. Some d

Why objectivity (85): The article focuses on the impact of the El Niño on specific weather events and uses descriptive language about the storms. While it provides factual information, the emphasis on the rarity and intensity of the cyclone train could be seen as somewhat sensationalist. The lack of broader context about

Večer logoVečerIndependent🔒CenterFactual 90Objective 808/31/2026
What does this mean for us?

The article discusses the approaching strongest El Niño event in history, highlighting potential impacts on the region. It explains that the phenomenon, characterized by weakened trade winds and warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, could lead to prolonged periods of hot and dry weather followed by heavy rainfall and storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a high probability of a very strong El Niño during the upcoming autumn and winter, with significant effects expected across Europe and the wider region. While the exact regional impacts vary, the article notes that the combination of factors such as the North Atlantic, polar vortex, and Mediterranean Sea temperatures could result in hotter-than-average conditions, particularly in early autumn.

Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information about the scientific aspects of El Niño without overtly favoring any political ideology. It provides data from NOAA and other meteorological models, focusing on environmental and climatic implications rather than taking a stance on policy or governance. The '

Why factuality (90): The article accurately reflects the 90%+ probability of a 'very strong' El Niño and the 69% chance of reaching +2.5°C in the RONI index, matching the primary source. It explains the mechanism of El Niño formation and the role of the Niño-3.4 region correctly, aligning closely with the primary source

Why objectivity (80): The article maintains a relatively neutral tone while explaining the phenomenon and its implications. However, it slightly leans toward emphasizing the potential severity of the situation by mentioning 'najmočnejši El Niño v zgodovini,' which could introduce a slight bias towards alarmism.

Infobae logoInfobaeIndependentCenterFactual 75Objective 608/28/2026
El Niño no longer behaves like it used to: why its record intensity since 1990 challenges climate models

The article discusses how the El Niño phenomenon is behaving differently compared to previous years, with record intensity since 1990 challenging existing climate models. Scientists are observing changes in the patterns and impacts of El Niño, which could have significant implications for global weather systems and climate predictions. The increased strength of these events suggests potential shifts in climate dynamics that current models may not fully account for. This development raises questions about the accuracy of future climate projections and the need for updated modeling approaches.

Bias read (Center): The article focuses on environmental science and climate phenomena, discussing scientific observations and their implications for climate models. There is no explicit political framing, bias, or advocacy present in the content provided.

Why factuality (75): The article discusses the changing behavior of El Niño since 1990, noting record intensity that challenges climate models. While it references general scientific consensus on El Niño variability, there is no specific primary source cited. The claim about 'record intensity' appears to align with broa

Why objectivity (60): The tone of the article leans towards sensationalism, using phrases like 'desafía los modelos climáticos' (challenges climate models) which may imply criticism of current modeling efforts. The focus on 'intensidad récord' suggests a narrative emphasizing change and unpredictability, which could be s

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