María Corina Machado will not be an "obstacle" to the negotiations forced by Washington between Chavismo 3.0 and a part of the opposition

On August 1, 2026, Venezuela launched its eighth negotiation process since the rise of the chavist movement 27 years ago. This time, however, there is no international mediator, unlike previous talks such as those mediated by Norway before the disputed 2024 presidential elections. Instead, the United States has taken full control over the terms of the dialogue, deciding who participates, where the meetings take place, what topics will be discussed, and how long they will last. The initiative comes amid a complex political and humanitarian crisis, marked by a U.S. military strike in January that killed more than 100 people and led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Since then, Washington has exerted influence over the Venezuelan government, particularly controlling oil production, while a double earthquake in June added more than 5,500 deaths and left nearly 18,000 people homeless. The opposition delegation is led by Dinorah Figuera, a surgeon and member of the opposition party Primero Justicia, who has been based in Madrid since 2023. She heads the National Assembly of 2015, which was elected with a large majority in 2015 but gradually stripped of power by the chavist regime. This assembly once supported the "interim government" of Juan Guaidó, recognized by around 50 countries including Spain, but the opposition later abandoned this effort. Today, Figuera leads a body without territorial authority or real power within Venezuela, though Western nations still recognize it as the last legitimately elected parliament. This recognition gives her group legal standing over Venezuela’s assets abroad, such as the Citgo oil company and gold held in the Bank of England, which have been frozen due to ongoing litigation managed by the assembly. The selection of Figuera's delegation surprised many, as she does not represent the majority of the opposition. In Venezuela, there are at least three distinct opposition groups: the largest, centered around María Corina Machado, who won the 2023 primaries but was disqualified and ran as candidate Edmundo González in 2024; the institutional opposition represented by the 2015 National Assembly; and moderate factions that have negotiated with the chavists or participated in elections, such as Un Nuevo Tiempo and Avanzada Progresista. The United States chose the second option, excluding the other two. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often referred to as the de facto viceroy of Latin America by the New York Times, justified the choice by stating that the 2015 assembly came to power after "the country’s last democratic election." However, the mandate of this body expired in 2021. Despite this, Figuera claimed she would invite all opposition groups to participate, with Machado playing an important role. When asked directly, Rubio acknowledged that Machado might attend the negotiations, though he phrased it conditionally. A representative of the chavist delegation denied any imposition by the United States on the agenda, stating they intend to speak with all opposition groups. Political analyst Ángel Álvarez described the process as being imposed rather than facilitated by the United States, noting that Washington decides when, where, who, and on what issues the negotiations occur. He compared the situation to South Vietnam during the war, where American military and political figures dictated decisions made by a corrupt government. He attributed this to the weakness of the opposition, which allows such decisions to be made with little resistance, and the vulnerability of the chavist government, which faces the threat of extreme measures from Washington. Since January 3, it has become clear that Washington is willing to use force against those who do not comply with its demands. The selection of the 2015 National Assembly is not coincidental. Support for Machado is high among the public, and her absence from the negotiations has sparked protests. On July 28, supporters of Machado gathered in Caracas to commemorate both the anniversary of the opposition’s claimed victory and the birth of Hugo Chávez. These demonstrations highlighted the deep divisions within the city, with different groups occupying the same space but representing opposing narratives. Meanwhile, outside the U.S. embassy in Caracas, families of political prisoners have set up a permanent protest site, demanding the release of their loved ones. One mother, Laudelina Romero, has spent over 50 days waiting for a response from the embassy, holding a photograph of her son Gabriel Barros, one of the 379 political detainees listed by the Foro Penal. Her plea is simple yet urgent: the release of all political prisoners should be the first item on any negotiation agenda. The negotiation process began under strict secrecy, with the U.S. Department of State referring to it as an "initiative" aimed at establishing a new National Electoral Council (CNE) capable of outlining a path to reopen voting booths by the end of 2027. The process is entirely under Washington’s control, with operations based in Madrid. The opposition delegation, which had been meeting in Madrid for the past week to prepare technical committees on five key areas, is scheduled to move to Caracas for initial meetings with the chavist delegation led by Jorge Rodríguez, the older brother of President Delcy Rodríguez and head of the fraudulent 2025 National Assembly. The discussions will cover the composition of the CNE, updates to the voter registry, audit of the electoral system, and a calendar for future elections. Additionally, the creation of a new Electoral Chamber within the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) is crucial for the upcoming elections. Both the TSJ and other judicial bodies, especially the Constitutional Chamber, were previously controlled by Cilia Flores, Maduro’s wife, who had appointed judges loyal to the regime. Legalizing and returning voter cards to banned opposition parties and lifting political bans, such as the one on Machado, are among the tasks to be addressed. John Barrett, the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in these negotiations, having previously worked on similar reforms in Guatemala. Another commission will focus on restoring freedom of expression, reopening radio stations and newspapers, and changing television channels. Addressing the issue of approximately 400 remaining political prisoners is another critical task, highlighting a major flaw in the current process. The U.S. aims to prevent the recurrence of past failures, where the chavist government has consistently violated agreements reached through international mediation. The date of August 1 was chosen by Washington to counter the chavist attempt to delay progress using the aftermath of the June earthquakes, a historical tactic used by the regime. Despite significant U.S. support, including over 2,000 personnel on the ground, the disaster exposed the limitations of the chavist administration, even under intense external backing.