Could Mississippi Really Send a Democrat to the Senate?

Senate Majority PAC announced Tuesday that it is launching a $1.2 million television and digital advertising campaign in Mississippi, aiming to support Democratic challenger Scott Colom in his bid to unseat Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The super PAC, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, stated that the campaign will run through Election Day. Its initial 30-second spot portrays Colom, a local prosecutor, as a candidate who will fight corruption in both parties, while characterizing the incumbent as a do-nothing politician. Lauren French, a spokesperson for the group, said in a written statement that the organization has monitored the race closely and believes Colom is running a competitive campaign that has pressured Hyde-Smith. This expenditure marks a significant shift in Democratic strategy, as the party seeks to flip the Senate majority by targeting deep-red states where President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined. Democrats require a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the chamber, a goal that necessitates winning in states Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Mississippi represents the most heavily Republican territory the PAC has entered thus far, with Trump winning the state by 23 points in the previous election cycle. A Democrat has not won a Senate seat in Mississippi since 1982. The PAC is simultaneously deploying resources in Kansas, which Trump won by 16 points, as well as in Alaska, Texas, and Iowa, other states where the president secured double-digit victories. Scott Colom, the district attorney for Mississippi’s 16th Judicial District, has cited Hyde-Smith’s voting record as his primary motivation for entering the race. When launching his campaign last year, Colom told NBC News that Hyde-Smith’s support for the Republican tax and spending package, which included substantial cuts to Medicaid, prompted his decision to run. The two politicians share a contentious history predating this election. During the Biden administration, Hyde-Smith blocked Colom’s nomination for a federal judgeship. Colom stated upon announcing his candidacy that he had forgiven her for that action. Hyde-Smith, who holds the endorsement of President Trump, is seeking a second full term after being appointed to the Senate in 2018. She defeated her opponent by 10 percentage points in 2020. Recent polling data indicates that Hyde-Smith maintains a lead ranging from three to six percentage points. However, observers on the ground suggest the race is closer than historical trends imply. Critics point to several controversies associated with the incumbent. In November 2018, Hyde-Smith sparked widespread condemnation by stating she would take a front-row seat if invited to a public hanging, a remark widely interpreted as a reference to lynching given the state’s history. More recently, she praised the Supreme Court’s weakening of the Voting Rights Act and supported mid-decade redistricting efforts in the South intended to eliminate Black-majority congressional districts. She has also faced criticism for failing to oppose Trump’s tariff policies, which have negatively impacted rural farmers, and for remaining silent on the federal budget bill that threatens to remove Medicaid coverage from more than 100,000 Mississippi residents and reduce SNAP benefits for tens of thousands others. Her only notable deviation from the president’s agenda involves his recent importation of cheap beef, a move Hyde-Smith, a cattle farmer, acknowledges could harm the domestic industry. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia has become a central figure in boosting Colom’s prospects. Warnock, who is viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, has personally raised over $500,000 for Colom’s campaign committee. This sum accounts for approximately 15 percent of the $3.5 million Colom has raised during the cycle. Warnock has also organized four separate fundraisers to direct national Democratic donors toward the Mississippi race. At an April donor breakfast, Warnock told attendees that the party was ignoring the contest, urging them to resist the tendency to overlook the South. He argued that a victory in Mississippi was possible if conditions aligned, framing the effort as part of a new Southern strategy to rebuild Democratic strength in the region. Warnock has traveled extensively throughout the Carolinas, Mississippi, and Georgia to support local candidates and promote this regional vision. He draws parallels between the 2020 Democratic victories in Georgia and the current political climate in other Southern states. While some strategists view Warnock’s involvement primarily as a step toward a future presidential bid, others argue the work benefits the party regardless of his personal ambitions. Georgia Democratic strategist Andrew Heaton noted that while the 2028 speculation exists, Warnock is focused on immediate goals and plans to run for re-election in his own Senate seat. Heaton suggested that 2028 will be a busy year for Warnock either way, emphasizing the importance of strengthening the party’s base in the South. The demographic landscape of Mississippi remains challenging for Democrats. With a population that is roughly 37 percent African American, the state has historically exhibited rigid racial divisions in voting patterns. Following the Civil War, Mississippi served as a center of Jim Crow segregation, and the state Democratic Party became a stronghold of white segregationist politics. As the national Democratic Party adopted civil rights legislation, the partisan alignment shifted, with white voters moving toward the Republican Party and Black voters consolidating behind Democrats. Despite these shifts, the white majority’s consistent support for Republicans has maintained GOP dominance in statewide elections. However, the margin of Republican victories has narrowed in recent years. In 2023, incumbent Governor Tate Reeves won re-election by only 27,000 votes, marking the closest gubernatorial race in the state since 1999. Charles Taylor, executive director of the Mississippi NAACP, stated that voters are increasingly frustrated and engaged in voter education efforts, suggesting this sentiment will influence the upcoming ballot choices.