Attacks against NATO member states: 'Putin has escalated'

German military historian Sönke Neitzel has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating tensions with NATO, potentially risking further conflict beyond Ukraine. This assessment comes amid reports of increased Russian activity near NATO territories, including alleged drone strikes and aircraft incursions into Romanian airspace and Baltic states. Neitzel emphasized that Putin's need to maintain power domestically could drive him to take more aggressive actions, even if they appear irrational. The warning follows a high-profile visit by John Ratcliffe, director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), to Moscow earlier this week. According to media reports, the trip was interpreted as a direct message to Russia not to invade the Baltic states. Neitzel did not rule out such a possibility, stating that while Russia currently lacks the military strength to launch an invasion, its leader might still attempt to escalate hostilities elsewhere to achieve strategic gains. Neitzel pointed out that Russia’s inability to make progress in Ukraine has created a dilemma for Putin. The president faces domestic pressure to demonstrate success, and retreating from the war would likely lead to his removal from power. Economic experts agree that ending the conflict would severely damage Russia’s economy, making it unlikely for Putin to pursue peace negotiations. As a result, he must continue the war to preserve both his political position and economic stability. The historian noted that NATO countries are still vulnerable in certain areas of defense. For example, the United States has reportedly used up a third of its high-value munitions, including Patriot missiles, in conflicts in the Gulf region. Germany is constructing a Patriot missile production facility, but it is not yet operational. Meanwhile, Europe struggles to provide sufficient air defenses against Russian medium-range missiles targeting Ukraine. Russia is aware of these vulnerabilities, particularly in the area of drones. Neitzel stated that Western nations lag behind in drone technology, although efforts are underway to close this gap. However, the concern within NATO is whether Putin will exploit this window of opportunity before defensive capabilities improve. Neitzel acknowledged that assessing the true extent of Russian escalation is difficult due to limited public information. He criticized intelligence agencies for being too secretive about their findings, which makes it hard for the general public to understand the gravity of the situation. He argued that greater transparency from intelligence services is necessary to help citizens grasp the seriousness of the threat posed by Russia. In recent weeks, there have been several incidents involving Russian military assets near NATO territory. These include unexplained drone flights over German airports and unauthorized entries of Russian aircraft into Romanian airspace. While some of these incidents remain classified, others have been reported publicly. Neitzel mentioned the case of a drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport as an example of how such events are becoming more frequent, though many go unreported due to secrecy protocols. Despite the lack of clear evidence, the pattern of increasing Russian aggression suggests a potential shift in strategy. Neitzel stressed that the international community must respond decisively to prevent further escalation. He called for stronger diplomatic and military preparedness measures to deter Putin from taking additional risks. Military analysts and policymakers are closely monitoring developments in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. The situation remains fluid, with new information emerging regularly. NATO members are reviewing their defense strategies and considering ways to bolster collective security. The outcome of these discussions will shape the alliance’s response to future Russian actions.