ANALYSIS: Could AU’s return to Khartoum bring Sudan closer to peace?

The African Union (AU) has announced its intention to resume operations at its liaison office in Khartoum, marking a significant shift in its engagement with Sudan after nearly a year of absence. This decision comes amid ongoing conflict in the country, which has persisted for over three years, and reflects the AU's determination to play a central role in brokering peace. The move follows discussions between AU officials and Sudanese military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who heads the Sovereign Council and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The AU had previously withdrawn its staff from Khartoum in April 2023 when violence escalated, relocating them to Addis Ababa, where they conducted remote diplomatic efforts with Sudan’s conflicting factions. The AU’s liaison office in Sudan was originally established to facilitate the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which ended the north-south civil war. Over time, the office expanded its role to address other crises, including the Darfur conflict and the aftermath of South Sudan’s independence in 2011. Following the 2019 coup that ousted President Omar al-Bashir, the office played a critical role in facilitating negotiations among Sudan’s transitional authorities, ultimately contributing to the August 2019 power-sharing agreement. However, subsequent military coups in 2021 and the ongoing conflict have complicated the AU’s involvement, prompting it to operate primarily through virtual means until now. The decision to reopen the liaison office underscores the AU’s desire to maintain a direct and continuous dialogue with Sudan’s warring parties. A physical presence in Khartoum would allow the AU to serve as the sole Quintet member, comprising the AU, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, League of Arab States, European Union, and United Nations, with a permanent political footprint on the ground. This positioning is particularly valuable given that the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan closed earlier this year, and several foreign embassies have moved to neighboring countries, reducing their direct engagement with Sudanese stakeholders. Despite the potential benefits, the AU faces considerable challenges in re-establishing its role in Sudan. During recent talks with al-Burhan, concerns were raised about maintaining neutrality and securing support from all factions involved in the conflict. The Sudanese landscape is marked by a complex array of armed groups, civilian organizations, and political entities, each with distinct interests and positions. For the AU to be effective, it must engage in extensive consultations to ensure its approach is viewed as balanced and legitimate by all parties. Moreover, the AU’s return to Khartoum coincides with its broader mediation efforts aimed at stabilizing the region. These initiatives include participation in the Quintet and intra-Sudanese dialogues designed to foster cooperation among the warring parties. Any perception that the AU’s actions might undermine these processes could jeopardize its credibility and effectiveness. As such, the organization must carefully navigate its re-entry into Sudan to avoid alienating any group while simultaneously pushing for meaningful progress toward peace. The AU’s liaison office will likely focus initially on restoring communication channels and providing technical assistance to support peacebuilding efforts. While the immediate goal is not necessarily to broker a formal ceasefire, the renewed presence could create additional pressure on opposing forces to engage in genuine dialogue. The success of this endeavor will depend heavily on the AU’s ability to build trust with all stakeholders and demonstrate a clear commitment to impartiality and inclusivity in its interactions with Sudan’s diverse political and military actors.