Can the AU make its current Sudan mission count?

A delegation from the African Union (AU) launched a two-day field visit to Sudan on Sunday, aiming to intensify diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire, enhance humanitarian access and reignite a political process to conclude the ongoing war. The mission comes amid continued violence that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions over the past three years. The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) is currently engaging directly with Sudanese authorities and conflicting parties, focusing on key issues such as humanitarian aid delivery and the prospects for a political resolution. This initiative follows a decision made earlier this year by the PSC to conduct the field visit, which aims to bolster broader peacebuilding efforts within the region. The timing of the mission coincides with a complex military landscape in Sudan, where the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have reclaimed substantial portions of the capital, Khartoum, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain a stronghold in Darfur, located in western Sudan. Additionally, the region of Kordofan, situated between central, western and southern Sudan, has emerged as a critical battleground due to its strategic importance in connecting different fronts. The SAF's recent advances around Khartoum have shifted the military balance, yet neither side has secured a definitive advantage. This stalemate presents a unique challenge for the AU, which seeks to promote dialogue even as both factions continue to pursue battlefield improvements. The PSC's primary objectives include encouraging the SAF and RSF to agree on a ceasefire, facilitating better access for humanitarian organizations and maintaining a political framework capable of determining Sudan's long-term governance structure beyond the influence of these two armed groups. The AU has consistently advocated for an inclusive, Sudanese-led political process, recognizing that merely halting hostilities will not address the deeper root causes of the conflict. Sudan's post-2019 political transformation, following the ousting of former leader Omar al-Bashir, has deteriorated significantly. Disputes between civilian entities and the military led to the dissolution of a civilian-military power-sharing agreement in October 2021, exacerbating tensions over the nation's direction. The war commenced in April 2023, fueled by longstanding rivalries between the SAF and RSF regarding the transition to civilian leadership. The AU confronts a dual challenge: mitigating the intensity of hostilities to enable humanitarian support and negotiations, while ensuring that any potential settlement addresses the broader aspirations of Sudanese society rather than merely resolving immediate conflicts between the two factions. The current situation underscores the complexity of achieving sustainable peace, especially given the persistent presence of both armed groups in key regions and their continued operational capabilities. Previous diplomatic attempts have not yielded lasting results, despite numerous initiatives. In May 2023, the PSC endorsed a comprehensive plan advocating for a permanent and inclusive ceasefire, improved humanitarian access, civilian safety and a restoration of a legitimate political transition. Although the SAF and RSF committed to these goals during a meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the agreements did not prevent further escalation. A subsequent field mission to Cairo and Port Sudan in October 2024 reiterated calls for a ceasefire, humanitarian access and a renewed political process. However, the underlying challenges persist, indicating that the path to resolution remains fraught with obstacles.