US midterm elections could make it harder for President Trump to govern

Midterm elections in the United States could complicate President Donald Trump's governance, according to recent developments and analyses. With campaign activities for the November midterms fully underway, public opinion polls suggest Democrats might gain control of at least one chamber of Congress. Meanwhile, Republicans are preparing their national convention in Dallas during the first half of September. The Republican Party will hold its national convention on September 9 and 10 in Dallas. This marks the first time such an event will occur midway through a presidential term, typically held before presidential elections. The two-day gathering aims to mobilize the party’s voter base and strengthen the Republicans' position, which public opinion surveys predict will face challenges. Political analyst Dr. Bogomil Ferfila notes a historical pattern in American politics: “Looking at election results over decades, the rule has been that the ruling party loses at least one part of the U.S. Congress, either the Senate or the House of Representatives.” Given that Republicans currently have only a slim majority in both chambers, Ferfila suggests that “one part of the U.S. Congress is likely to shift under Democratic leadership.” Several factors appear to influence voters' decisions. According to poll data, Democrats are optimistic about securing a majority in the House of Representatives and are gaining ground in the race for the Senate. Republicans are attempting to rally their electorate by highlighting immigration issues and foreign policy topics. Trump himself has warned Americans about potential scenarios similar to those seen along the border with Spain in North Africa if Democrats win. In addition to migration concerns, the economic situation remains a key issue for American voters. “Economic conditions in America are moderate. Economic growth is around a few percent, so I would say economic conditions won't significantly impact the outcome,” explains Dr. Ferfila. He adds that external political events will be more influential, which is why Trump is trying to calm tensions in Iran. If Democrats indeed take control of Congress, Trump’s future governance will be considerably limited. However, Ferfila points out that the president still has tools available to bypass Congress. These include executive orders or decrees, which all U.S. presidents have used throughout history. “With these executive laws, Trump can enact numerous laws valid during his term, although his successor can later revoke them,” Ferfila explains, adding that this was evident during the last transition of power. Trump signed 142 executive orders within his first 100 days in office. For Republicans, the coming months will be challenging. If they fail to turn the tide, congressional control is almost certainly going to shift into Democratic hands, thereby influencing Trump’s future political plans.