Die Ölpreise sind hoch, aber es könnte noch viel schlimmer sein.

Shipowners have ordered more than twice the number of tankers this year compared to all of 2025, driven by soaring demand linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This represents the largest tanker-buying spree in at least a quarter-century, with the total investment reaching $20 billion. The surge follows the closure of Saudi Arabia’s key East-West Pipeline and a shift toward crude production in the Americas, requiring longer transoceanic shipments. Daily tanker lease rates have climbed to record highs, increasing tenfold in the past year to over $1 million. The situation reflects broader changes in global trade routes due to escalating tensions in the region. Oil prices remain volatile, though they have not reached the worst-case scenarios predicted by analysts when the conflict began. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s energy strategy has played a role in stabilizing prices. China, which maintains the world’s largest oil stockpile, around 1.4 billion barrels, has significantly reduced crude imports since the U.S. and Israel intensified attacks on Iran. This move, combined with a push toward electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, has eased global demand and softened price increases for the U.S., Europe, and other regions. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, noted that China’s actions have prevented a more severe economic impact. However, challenges persist. Recent attacks by Iran-backed militias have prompted Saudi Arabia to close a critical pipeline, while Yemen-based Houthis have taken control of two strategic Red Sea islands, enhancing the capacity of Iran-aligned groups to disrupt maritime routes. Planned discussions among Gulf nations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were postponed. Before meeting Xi, President Trump is scheduled to engage with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in New York during the UN General Assembly. Analysts at Bank of America predict oil prices could rise to $83 per barrel by midyear amid continued disruptions, with potential spikes to $95–$120 if violence persists. Damage to major energy infrastructure could lead to even higher prices, potentially exceeding $150 per barrel. Brent crude averaged approximately $69 per barrel last year and currently hovers near that level.