Der Überlebenskünstler Netanyahu hat wieder einmal seinen Kopf aus der Schlinge gezogen [premium]

Israelis cast their ballots in a general election that concluded without a decisive victor, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a precarious position despite his party retaining its status as the largest faction in the Knesset. After all votes were tallied, the political landscape remained deadlocked. Netanyahu’s Likud party secured an estimated 26 seats in the 120-member parliament. However, his broader right-wing coalition failed to achieve the necessary majority, winning approximately 53 seats. This falls short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Consequently, neither the governing bloc nor the opposition possesses an independent mandate to rule, setting the stage for complex coalition negotiations. The election saw record-high voter participation, including a massive turnout among overseas Israelis and Arab citizens of the state. Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 years with interruptions, initially faced anxiety over potential defeat. Hours before polling stations closed, he urged supporters to vote and requested extended voting hours. His nervousness proved unfounded as final counts confirmed Likud’s lead, though the party suffered losses compared to previous elections. The prime minister, aged 77, avoided last-minute defeat but faces a fragmented political environment. The opposition bloc holds roughly 67 seats on paper, yet this number is divided by deep ideological and personal rifts. Gadi Eisenkot emerged as Netanyahu’s primary challenger, leading his party to capture 21 seats. Despite this gain, the Jewish opposition parties collectively hold only 48 seats, falling significantly short of the majority threshold. To reach 61 seats, these groups would require the support of two Arab-led parties: Raam and the Joint List. These parties are projected to win a combined record 19 seats. Analysts attribute the high Arab turnout partly to backlash against the current administration’s policies. Under the incumbent far-right national security minister, crime rates in Arab communities reportedly surged, prompting residents to blame negligent policing. Additionally, rising racism since the October 7 attacks and criticism of settler violence in the West Bank contributed to increased mobilization. Raam, an Islamist party drawing heavily from the Bedouin community, is led by Mansour Abbas. He became the first Arab politician to join an Israeli cabinet after the 2021 election. The Joint List, expected to be the larger of the two Arab parties, unites several smaller factions, including the communist Hadash, the secularist Taal, and the nationalist Balad. On Wednesday, Yair Golan, head of the left-wing Democrats party, called on allies to include Arab parties in their coalition calculations. He rejected what he described as Netanyahu’s rhetoric regarding such alliances. Political observers suggest that while Israelis may wish to retain Netanyahu as leader, they desire a new political configuration. A national unity government involving opposition figures such as Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, or Yair Lapid appears unlikely, as these leaders have explicitly ruled out partnering with the prime minister. They cite past experiences with Netanyahu’s political maneuvers as reasons for their distrust. The opposition expressed disappointment at failing to oust him once again. Netanyahu’s tenure spans three decades, during which he presided over economic growth and geopolitical influence, but also polarization and international isolation due to ongoing conflicts. Critics point to his refusal to accept responsibility for the security failures of October 7, 2023, and his rejection of an investigative commission. They also highlight his advancement of judicial reforms that sparked massive protests, moves some view as attempts to evade corruption trials currently pending against him. The path forward involves difficult negotiations. Netanyahu must prevent his rivals from assembling a viable alternative government. While his immediate political survival seems assured, the lack of a clear mandate complicates future governance. The presence of Arab parties in any potential coalition remains a contentious issue within the opposition ranks. For now, the political stalemate persists, with no side holding enough power to govern alone. The coming weeks will determine whether a fragile alliance can be forged or if further political instability ensues. The outcome hinges on whether disparate groups can bridge their differences to meet the constitutional requirement for a majority. Until then, the question of who controls the levers of power in Jerusalem remains unresolved.