Iran bi lahko dobil večji nadzor nad prometom skozi Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz stands at the brink of a major shift following reports that negotiations between Iran and Oman could lead to a new agreement that would grant Tehran greater control over maritime traffic through the critical waterway. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, discussions with Iran have made progress toward reopening the strait, which has been partially closed due to ongoing tensions since early 2026. Trump claimed that Iran is seeking a deal to avoid further conflict with the United States and expressed hope that a large-scale military strike against Iran will not be necessary. However, Iran has not confirmed these claims, emphasizing instead that key talks are taking place through Oman rather than directly with the U.S., casting doubt on whether the region is moving toward diplomatic resolution or further escalation. The situation has become increasingly tense after months of conflict between Iran and the United States, which began in February 2026 when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks that triggered a broader regional war. Reports indicate that more than 3,400 people have died since the start of hostilities, including 18 American soldiers. The potential agreement under discussion would mark one of the largest concessions to Iran so far, granting it oversight of shipping routes through the strait, a vital global energy corridor. Before the conflict, the strait was freely accessible to all vessels without tolls, and any change in its management would represent a significant shift in regional power dynamics. Recent developments suggest that Iran and Oman have been conducting bilateral talks on the regime of navigation through the strait, which both countries manage via their respective coasts. Iranian officials have stated that “significant advances” have been made in negotiations, indicating that ships entering and exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait might soon pass through Iranian waters. This proposed arrangement would give Iran substantial influence over one of the world’s most crucial oil transportation routes, potentially altering the balance of power in the region. Iran has also issued warnings to other Gulf states, stating that any new U.S. attack on its territory could provoke retaliatory strikes targeting key energy infrastructure in the region. Five sources familiar with the discussions emphasized that Iran’s warning was clear: if the U.S. attacks Iranian infrastructure, responses would target energy facilities in the Gulf and other regional targets. These threats underscore the high stakes involved in the current standoff, as both sides appear unwilling to back down without securing strategic advantages. Despite the apparent progress in negotiations, the U.S. government has yet to comment publicly on the proposed agreement. American officials have repeatedly stressed that Washington would never accept Iranian control over access to one of the world’s most vital energy transit routes. President Trump, however, has shown a preference for a diplomatic solution, stating during a recent event in Las Vegas that he would prefer reaching an agreement rather than engaging in actions that result in loss of life. His remarks reflect a growing desire among some U.S. leaders to de-escalate the conflict and find a peaceful resolution. Meanwhile, data from the maritime tracking company Kepler indicates that freight traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely unchanged compared to the previous day. On Tuesday alone, eight vessels passed through the strait, including five oil tankers and three cargo ships, numbers nearly identical to those recorded the day before. This suggests that while political negotiations continue, the physical movement of commercial shipping has not yet been significantly affected by the evolving situation. As the talks progress, the international community watches closely, aware that any final agreement could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. With both Iran and the U.S. holding firm positions, the path forward remains uncertain, leaving the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, and the stability of global energy markets, in limbo.