Inflacija je strmoglavljena: potrošniške cene so se v juniju močno znižale, veliko bolje kot pričakovano, največji padec v šestih letih

Consumer prices in the United States fell sharply in June, marking the largest monthly decline since 2020, according to data released by the Department of Labor. The consumer price index dropped 0.4 percent compared to May, far exceeding expectations of a modest 0.1 percent decrease. Year-on-year, prices remain 3.5 percent higher than in June 2023, indicating continued inflation but at a significantly reduced pace. The drop in prices was driven largely by falling energy costs, particularly at the gas pump. Energy prices plummeted 5.7 percent in June following several months of steep increases. Gasoline prices alone fell 9.7 percent, reversing a surge of 7.0 percent in May and 21.2 percent in March. This decline came as oil prices stabilized after a period of volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and shifting supply dynamics. Other sectors showed mixed trends. Grocery prices increased slightly by 0.2 percent for the month, though they remained 2.7 percent above their levels from a year ago. Dining out prices also rose 0.2 percent, contributing to a 3.4 percent annual increase. Core goods prices, which exclude food and energy, fell 0.2 percent in June, reflecting broader deflationary pressures in non-energy, non-food categories. These goods are currently 0.8 percent higher than they were a year ago. Services, excluding energy-related ones, saw no change in prices for the month, the best performance since early 2021. Services less rent of shelter fell 0.2 percent, signaling easing pressure in some service sectors. Shelter prices, however, rose just 0.1 percent, the smallest increase in over five years. Rent climbed 0.1 percent, while the cost of homeownership edged up 0.2 percent annually. Used car and truck prices decreased 0.2 percent in June, bringing their year-over-year decline to 2.1 percent. New car and truck prices remained flat, with a 0.5 percent rise over the past year. Motor vehicle insurance prices fell 2.0 percent, adding to the downward trend in transportation-related costs. Apparel prices dipped 0.6 percent, and medical care prices declined 0.1 percent, both showing signs of moderation in traditionally volatile sectors. Computer and smartphone prices also fell, with computers down 0.7 percent and smartphones down 0.8 percent, contrary to fears that increased demand for AI chips could push up technology prices. The unexpectedly strong inflation report has shifted expectations around potential Federal Reserve policy moves. Markets had anticipated a possible rate hike in July, but the data now suggest that such action may be unnecessary. Several Fed officials had previously hinted that a hotter-than-expected inflation figure could justify another rate increase, but the current numbers appear to alleviate that concern. The report also challenges previous assertions regarding the impact of recent trade policies. Despite concerns that President Trump's tariffs might raise consumer prices, the data show no significant upward pressure on core goods prices. This contradicts claims made by some economists and political opponents who argued that the tariffs functioned similarly to a national sales tax. Democratic criticisms during the 2024 campaign lacked empirical backing, and the latest statistics seem to refute those arguments. The decline in inflation offers a reprieve for households grappling with high living costs. While overall prices still reflect a 3.5 percent annual increase, the slowing growth provides temporary relief. The situation remains delicate, however, as underlying economic factors continue to influence price trends. The drop in core inflation, especially in goods outside of food and energy, indicates that broader economic forces are beginning to ease. However, the persistent rise in shelter and services prices shows that certain areas of the economy remain under pressure. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next steps, the data will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy decisions moving forward.