Politični kaos v Gvineji Bissau

Parliamentary and presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau, originally scheduled for December 6, 2026, will not occur as planned. Aly Silva, the spokesperson for transitional Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te, confirmed that the vote has been postponed indefinitely. No new date has been established yet. The government stated it intends to deliberate within the cabinet before publicly announcing when the elections will finally be held. It remains uncertain whether the voting will take place in 2027 or be delayed until 2028. The current political crisis traces its origins to November 26, 2025. Just three days prior, citizens in Guinea-Bissau had cast ballots for a new parliament and president. Before official results could be declared, the military intervened, seizing power and halting the electoral process entirely. Both incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, had claimed victory in the previous round. Following the takeover, military leaders pledged a return to constitutional order. General Horta N’Tam was sworn in as the transitional leader and commander-in-chief on November 27, 2025. The military appointed him as head of state for a one-year term following the seizure of power. Lawyer and political analyst Cabi Sanha stated that the postponement was not unexpected. He noted that since the coup, very little effort has been made to establish the conditions required for credible elections. Sanha described the delay as foreseeable, pointing out that while December 6 had been set as the target date, no measures were taken to ensure the elections could actually proceed. The transitional government justified the decision by citing a lack of necessary organizational and political prerequisites. According to the prime minister, the deadline for submitting candidacies expired on October 6. Political parties and potential candidates did not submit their applications during this period. The government also indicated that parties failed to hold internal congresses to select their nominees. However, Sanha argued that this reflects deeper issues beyond mere organization. He pointed to restrictions on political activities and a lack of dialogue with key actors in the electoral process. He emphasized that political parties and civil society groups have not been sufficiently involved in recent discussions. Mediation efforts led by the Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS, along with Senegal, have so far failed to yield a resolution. Sanha maintained that free, transparent, and inclusive elections are only possible if the foundational conditions are met beforehand. He viewed the parties' failure to nominate candidates as a direct consequence of the prevailing political environment. He questioned how parties could nominate candidates when political activities are restricted across the country. He added that parties are unable to hold party congresses or organize public rallies due to these constraints. Leading opposition figures are currently residing abroad. Domingos Simoes Pereira, the head of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, commonly referred to as PAIGC, was permitted to travel to Portugal in July 2026 for medical treatment. This permission came after his release from detention. Prior to this, he had been held in pretrial detention in connection with an investigation into an alleged coup attempt. His legal team denies all allegations against him. The defense has criticized the judicial proceedings as being politically motivated. The absence of prominent opposition representatives, combined with limited opportunities for political organizing, complicates the path toward an electoral process designed to restore civilian governance. Human rights concerns have also emerged recently. The body of human rights activist Vigario Balanta was discovered on March 31 in a swamp area approximately thirty kilometers from the capital, Bissau. Signs of torture were present on his body at the time of discovery. Uncertainty persists regarding future steps. Government spokesperson Aly Silva reiterated that the transitional government will first discuss the situation in cabinet meetings. A new election date will only be announced publicly after these internal consultations. Currently, there is no concrete timetable available. Consequently, it is unclear when political parties will be able to complete their internal selection procedures and formally nominate candidates for the upcoming vote. The military leadership continues to promise a return to constitutional rule, yet the repeated delays suggest a prolonged period of uncertainty ahead for the nation’s democratic transition.