Kaj je spodbudilo Bolsonara in zakaj so ankete v Braziliji postale slabe?

Brasil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, have advanced to the second round of the presidential elections, with Bolsonaro securing 47% of valid votes compared to Lula’s 45%. The results, announced on October 4, 2026, mark a decisive shift toward the right in Brazilian politics, with Bolsonaro’s party, the Liberal Party (PL), gaining significant control over both chambers of Congress. The outcome has sparked mixed reactions from both candidates, with Bolsonaro celebrating the result as a sign of public demand for change, while Lula called the result unexpected and emphasized the need for a renewed campaign. The first-round results showed a tight race between the two leaders, with Bolsonaro edging ahead slightly. His victory was particularly notable given that recent polls had suggested Lula held a three-point lead. Bolsonaro, who is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, claimed the win was due to growing support among voters who felt disillusioned with Lula’s administration. He praised his supporters for overcoming unfavorable polling data and described the result as a clear mandate for political transformation. “The word is ‘change,’” he stated, emphasizing his commitment to reducing government spending and taking a harder stance against crime. Lula, meanwhile, expressed surprise at the result and framed the upcoming runoff as an opportunity to prove his vision for Brazil. He accused Bolsonaro of having a “dark past” marked by alleged ties to organized crime and corruption scandals. Lula also criticized Bolsonaro’s policies, which he claims led to increased violence against women, higher taxes, and economic hardship. Despite these accusations, Lula remains optimistic, stating that his base within the left continues to grow, and he plans to appeal to voters who did not participate in the first round. The electoral outcome has broader implications for Brazil’s political landscape. The PL’s success in congressional races means it now holds 19 of the 54 Senate seats up for grabs, giving it more than a third of the chamber. This expansion strengthens the conservative bloc, which includes several members of the Bolsonaro family. Michelle Bolsonaro, the wife of the former president, won a Senate seat in the federal district, while her son Carlos Bolsonaro secured a seat in Santa Catarina. Their younger brother, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected as a federal deputy in the same state. These victories reinforce the influence of the Bolsonaro family within the PL. In contrast, Lula’s coalition suffered setbacks, with key figures such as former Environment Minister Marina Silva and former Planning Minister Simone Tebet losing their bids for Senate seats in São Paulo. The loss of these prominent left-wing voices could weaken Lula’s position in the runoff. Meanwhile, the PL’s dominance in Congress raises concerns about potential legislative changes, including the possibility of passing an amnesty law that would free Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup in 2022. A similar law could also benefit hundreds of protesters arrested during the January 2023 riots in Brasília, which were linked to the attempted coup. Regional observers note that Brazil’s political direction will have significant implications for Latin America. If Lula wins, he would continue to represent a rare left-leaning government in the region, aligning with leaders like Argentina’s Alberto Fernández. However, if Bolsonaro emerges victorious, Brazil would likely move closer to the United States under President Donald Trump, following the trend of right-wing governments in countries like Chile, Peru, and Ecuador. This realignment could affect diplomatic relations, especially with neighboring Colombia, which shares a border with Brazil and is concerned about environmental issues related to deforestation in the Amazon. The final phase of the campaign begins with both candidates preparing to address the electorate once again. Lula aims to rally support from those who stayed away from the polls, while Bolsonaro seeks to consolidate his base and counter Lula’s narrative of reform. With the runoff set for October 25, the outcome will determine whether Brazil continues its path toward the left or turns further right, reshaping the country’s political future.