Litva bo na Letonijo poslala mejnike zaradi migracijskega pritiska Belorusije

Lithuania has decided to send nine border guards to Latvia in July to assist with securing the shared border with Belarus, according to the State Border Guard Service (VSAT). This deployment comes amid growing concerns over illegal migration pressures, particularly from Belarus, which has seen a sharp increase in migrant flows through Latvia. The move marks the continuation of bilateral cooperation between the two Baltic nations, with Lithuanian border guards having previously supported Latvia's border security efforts between 2023 and 2025.

The decision follows reports that Latvia has experienced a more than fourfold increase in secondary migration flows this year. These figures highlight the severity of the situation, as the number of migrants intercepted, repatriated, or prevented from crossing the Latvian border has risen significantly. Lithuanian border guards have played a crucial role in this effort, with approximately 6,600 migrants being handled in the current year alone. In comparison, Lithuania recorded over 1,600 irregular entry attempts from Belarus in the same period, up from 1,002 in the previous year. Since the migration crisis began in 2021, Lithuanian border guards have successfully prevented more than 25,000 individuals from entering the country illegally.

The migration crisis originated in 2021, when a surge of migrants from Belarus began arriving in Eastern European Union member states. Western countries have accused Minsk of orchestrating the crisis, alleging that Belarus is acting under the direction of Russia to destabilize the region. This backdrop of geopolitical tension has led to increased collaboration among neighboring states, including Lithuania and Latvia, to manage the flow of migrants and maintain national security.

In addition to the migration issue, the Baltic states are also grappling with heightened security concerns related to Russia. Recent statements from Lithuania’s ambassador to NATO, Darius Jauniškis, suggest that Russia is more likely to engage in hybrid provocations rather than launching a full-scale military attack against NATO members. This assessment aligns with warnings from both Latvia and Estonia, who have expressed fears of potential Russian actions in the region. Estonia, in particular, has been strengthening its defenses along its border with Russia, constructing trenches, bunkers, and anti-tank barriers known as "dragon’s teeth." These fortifications aim to deter or delay any potential Russian advances.

Analysts note that Russia has a history of employing hybrid tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and covert operations, to exert influence without direct confrontation. This approach was evident during the 1990s, when bombings near a synagogue in Latvia were linked to Russian efforts to cast the country in a negative light. Today, the use of hybrid strategies is seen as a way for Russia to challenge NATO without risking a direct military conflict.

Despite these tensions, Baltic security experts caution against exaggerating the immediate threat, emphasizing that the broader concern lies with Russia’s overall posture toward NATO as an alliance. While some intelligence agencies predict that Russia could pose a military threat to NATO by the end of the decade, others argue that its military resources remain strained due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. As the war continues to impact Russia’s own territory, with Ukrainian strikes targeting areas near Moscow and St. Petersburg, analysts warn that Russia may become more unpredictable in its actions.

The situation underscores the complex interplay between migration management and regional security in the Baltic states. As Lithuania and Latvia continue to collaborate on border control, they must also navigate the evolving landscape of hybrid threats posed by Russia. The coming months will likely see further developments in both areas, shaping the security dynamics of the region.