Razpad sporazuma o soji v Amazoniji bi do leta 2036 lahko privedel do 1,4 milijona hektarjev gozdov

A landmark environmental agreement aimed at curbing deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has collapsed, potentially leading to the loss of 1.4 million hectares of forest by 2036, according to a study published in Science. This area is equivalent to approximately 2 million soccer fields and would release carbon emissions comparable to Canada’s annual output. The Amazon Soy Moratorium, established in 2006, had previously succeeded in virtually eliminating deforestation linked to soy production. However, recent legal challenges and policy changes have led to its abandonment, raising concerns about increased deforestation and carbon emissions in the region. The moratorium was a voluntary commitment among soy traders to avoid sourcing or financing soy grown on land deforested after July 2008. When it was introduced, nearly a third of annual soy expansion came from deforestation. Following its implementation, deforestation associated with new soy fields dropped to nearly zero. According to Tiago Reis of the World Wildlife Fund-Brazil, the agreement had both environmental and economic benefits, helping open new markets and ensuring that soy production did not contribute significantly to Amazon deforestation. However, the agreement faced increasing scrutiny over the past few years. Soy farmers launched a $200 million lawsuit against traders, alleging anti-competitive practices. Additionally, Brazilian antitrust authorities investigated the agreement's participants, accusing them of acting like a cartel. More recently, laws enacted in soy-producing states such as Mato Grosso removed tax incentives from companies adhering to stricter environmental standards than legally mandated. These measures have effectively undermined the moratorium, leading to its dissolution in January. Researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, DePaul University, and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign projected that the collapse of the moratorium could result in an additional 1.4 million hectares of deforestation by 2036. This would equate to 745 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, similar to Canada’s yearly greenhouse gas output. The study also noted that this amount represents roughly 17 percent of the total deforestation observed in the Brazilian Amazon over the past decade. Despite these findings, there have been signs of reduced deforestation rates in recent months. Data released earlier this year indicated that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached its lowest level in a decade during the first half of 2023, following the return of leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to power. However, the researchers warned that the potential impact of the moratorium’s collapse could severely hinder these efforts. Beyond direct deforestation, the study estimated that tens of millions of additional hectares of “undesignated” public forest, lands not protected or owned by private entities or indigenous communities, could face pressure from land grabbing due to their suitability for soy cultivation. While cattle ranching is typically the first step in claiming such lands, soy remains the most powerful indirect driver of deforestation because of its high market value. To address these issues, the researchers recommended strengthening deforestation enforcement within Brazil and promoting more responsible sourcing practices among soy importers, particularly in the European Union and China. They also urged companies, banks, and financial institutions to demand soy that is free from deforestation more aggressively. Reis emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that the current climate crisis, marked by extreme heatwaves and the impending El Niño weather pattern, poses additional threats to the Amazon. These conditions are likely to exacerbate droughts and wildfires, further endangering the rainforest. The study, titled The Rise and Fall of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, was published in Science and highlights the complex interplay between environmental policies, economic interests, and legal challenges in the Amazon basin.