In the run-up to the September 6 regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to lead with 41 percent according to a new poll conducted by Infratest dimap. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which previously held 26 percent, has dropped to 24 percent. The survey, carried out between July 23 and 28 among 1,149 eligible voters, was commissioned by the regional broadcaster MDR and local newspapers Mitteldeutsche Zeitung and Volksstimme. This comes amid ongoing turmoil within the federal CDU and following the attack on the Christopher Street Day parade in Berlin on July 25. The AfD’s chances of securing an outright majority in the state parliament remain unchanged despite the CDU's decline. The Greens have regained entry into the state legislature, increasing their support by one percentage point to five percent. With more parties represented in the parliament, the likelihood of the AfD achieving sole rule diminishes. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SPD) maintain their position at seven percent, while the Left Party rises slightly to 13 percent. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), once a parliamentary force, is now listed under “Others” due to low approval ratings. Personal popularity rankings among potential candidates show notable shifts. AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund has surpassed CDU candidate Sven Schulze for the first time, with 35 percent of respondents expressing satisfaction with Siegmund’s work compared to 29 percent for Schulze. This marks a departure from earlier polls in late 2025, when both were tied at 20 percent. Despite Schulze’s recent appointment as CDU’s top candidate, his approval rating has not reached the levels achieved by former long-serving leader Reiner Haseloff, who had consistently higher visibility and satisfaction scores. Schulze maintains a slight edge in overall recognition, with 65 percent of respondents identifying him, compared to Siegmund’s 63 percent. However, Schulze’s approval is lower than Haseloff’s previous figures, particularly among younger voters, men, and less-educated groups, where Siegmund leads. Schulze, however, garners stronger support among older voters and less-educated individuals, an unusual trend for a CDU candidate. Public satisfaction with the current coalition government, comprising CDU, SPD, and FDP, has also declined. It fell from 33 percent in May to 29 percent currently. This dissatisfaction reflects broader discontent with the ruling party’s performance and governance. Among CDU supporters, there is a clear divide regarding potential alliances. Eighty-two percent reject cooperation with the AfD, while only 16 percent support such a move. Conversely, AfD supporters are split, with 55 percent favoring a coalition with the CDU and 39 percent opposing it. When considering the Left Party, 52 percent of CDU supporters reject a coalition, whereas 41 percent are open to it. The Left Party’s supporters, however, overwhelmingly back a partnership with the CDU, with 91 percent in favor. The political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt remains fluid, with shifting public sentiment and internal party dynamics influencing the outcome of the upcoming election. As the campaign progresses, the interplay between established parties and rising forces will likely shape the final results.
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