Bankitalia: procjena rasta BDP-a u 2026. na 1% (0,9% korigirano za radne dane)

Italy's inflation rate surged to 4.2% year-on-year in September, according to data confirmed by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat). This marks the highest annual increase since September 2023. The monthly inflation rate stood at 0.7%, pushing the overall annual rate higher compared to August’s 3.3%. The acceleration in inflation was primarily driven by rising prices for energy goods, which increased from 17.1% to 22.6% annually. Prices for non-traded food items also rose significantly, climbing from 3.8% to 5.5% year-on-year. The so-called "shopping basket", comprising food, household care, and personal items, rose by 1.5% annually, up from 0.9% in August. High-frequency purchase products, such as groceries and everyday essentials, saw their annual growth rate rise from 4.3% to 5.2%. Energy prices continued to exert pressure on the economy. Regulated energy prices accelerated their annual growth to 25.8%, with city gas and regulated natural gas prices jumping from 31.0% to 47.0%. Diesel fuel for transport saw its annual price increase climb from 26.7% to 34.9%, while heating diesel prices rose from 31.8% to 38.5%. Electricity prices under regulated markets remained stable at 9.7%, whereas prices in free electricity markets climbed from 18.6% to 22.8%. Food prices showed mixed trends. Overall, food prices increased by 1.7% annually, up from 1.0% in August. Non-traded food items, including vegetables, tubers, bananas, and legumes, saw their prices jump from 4.0% to 8.5% annually. However, processed food prices declined slightly, falling from -0.4% to -0.6% annually. Service sector prices also contributed to inflation. Recreational, cultural, and personal care services increased by 2.9% annually, driven largely by accommodation services, which rose from 3.2% to 3.5%. Transport-related service prices increased from 0.8% to 1.6% annually, although air passenger transport prices fell from -11.5% to -6.1%. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile components such as energy and fresh food, reached 1.6%, up from 1.5%. The average annual inflation rate acquired in September, assuming the index remains constant for the remainder of the year, stands at 3.1%. This aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s recent estimate of 3.3% for Italy’s 2026 inflation rate. Rising living costs have pushed more Italians into food insecurity. Over four million individuals above the poverty threshold have reduced their spending on food, leading to lower quality and quantity of meals. According to Istat, family spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 552 euros per month in 2025, up from 533 euros in 2024. Despite this, nearly 29.4% of Italian families reported limiting their food expenditure, reducing either the amount or quality of purchased goods. Families in southern Italy allocate a larger share of their budget to food and non-alcoholic beverages, reaching 25.4% compared to 19.8% nationally. However, the increase in food spending was more pronounced in central and northern regions. Southern families, generally facing greater financial constraints, continue to prioritize essential goods over discretionary purchases. The rising cost of living has had a profound impact on households, particularly affecting younger generations, children, and teenagers. As essential expenses such as rent and utility bills consume a larger portion of family budgets, less money remains available for food, exacerbating existing challenges in accessing nutritious and sufficient meals.