Egipat otključava 1,8 milijardi dolara novčanih sredstava MMF-a nakon prolaska revizije

Egypt secured $1.8 billion in new funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after successfully completing a review of its economic reform programs. This brings the total amount disbursed under the IMF’s support to $7.3 billion. The approval comes amid signs of economic resilience, with Egypt’s economy growing by 5.2 percent during the first nine months of the fiscal year 2025/26. Headline inflation dropped to 14.3 percent in June, down from 15.2 percent in March, partly due to declining global oil prices following a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The IMF’s decision followed a comprehensive assessment of Egypt’s progress under two distinct programs. The first, a 48-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, granted Egypt immediate access to $1.5 billion. A second program, the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, added approximately $272 million to the package. These funds aim to bolster Egypt’s ability to manage ongoing economic challenges, particularly those linked to the regional conflicts affecting the Middle East. Egypt’s economic performance has been supported by several factors, including record levels of remittances from Egyptians working abroad, strong tourism revenue, and a gradual rebound in earnings from the Suez Canal. These elements have helped cushion the country against rising oil and gas prices, which typically strain economies reliant on imported energy. Despite these pressures, Egypt managed to implement necessary reforms, such as adjusting energy prices and maintaining control over public spending. The IMF acknowledged Egypt’s efforts in navigating the economic fallout from the Middle East war. “A lot of the programme targets for March and June were met despite the very challenging situation,” said Amine Mati, the IMF’s mission chief for Egypt. He credited the government with taking decisive policy actions to stabilize the economy. As a major energy importer, Egypt faced additional challenges as the war pushed up oil and gas prices, contributing to inflation and increased living costs. The country entered into an expanded $8 billion IMF program in early 2024, aimed at addressing a deepening economic crisis marked by high inflation and dwindling foreign currency reserves. Additional support came from other international partners, including the United Arab Emirates, which pledged substantial investments, alongside contributions from the World Bank and European institutions. Economic growth projections for the 2025–2026 fiscal year stand at 4.6 percent, slightly below earlier forecasts. However, the outlook for the subsequent fiscal year, 2026–2027, is less optimistic, with growth expected to slow to 4.4 percent. This moderation is attributed to lingering effects of the regional conflict, including reduced investment and higher production costs. Despite these challenges, the IMF noted that Egypt’s fiscal performance has remained robust, with tax revenues surpassing targets by the end of March. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist, particularly concerning potential escalations in the conflict involving Iran and the United States. Such developments could exacerbate financial strains and complicate both fiscal and external balances. The recent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which lasted until mid-June, contributed to a temporary easing of tensions and a decline in energy prices. However, the truce collapsed recently after both sides exchanged missiles and drones, disrupting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This resurgence of hostilities introduces further volatility into an already complex economic landscape. While there is potential for improved investor confidence should the ceasefire be renewed, the current instability underscores the fragility of Egypt’s economic recovery. The IMF emphasized the importance of continued policy discipline and effective implementation of structural reforms to ensure long-term stability. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Egypt can sustain its momentum or face renewed setbacks.