With Trump’s Iran deal, the October 7 wars are over. Israel really has no idea what to do next

Newly released secret Hamas internal documents obtained by Israeli intelligence and shared exclusively with The Jerusalem Post reveal a detailed, multi-year strategy aimed at deceiving Israel into a false sense of security before the October 7, 2023, attack. These documents, analyzed by the Meir Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute, show how Hamas meticulously planned to manipulate both diplomatic and military perceptions in Israel to ensure the element of surprise during the large-scale assault.

The earliest of the disclosed documents dates back to September 13, 2022, and is titled Building a Strategic Deception Plan Which Will Be the Basis for a Surprise Attack by Hamas on Israel. This document outlines a comprehensive approach involving diplomatic, military, economic, and public relations strategies. One section emphasizes the importance of advancing negotiations related to the release of Israeli citizens held hostage by Hamas, a process that was ongoing at the time. These talks, according to the document, were intended to create a perception of cooperation and stability, thereby diverting Israeli attention away from potential military preparations.

Another critical aspect outlined in the document involves the normalization of military activity along the Gaza-Israel border. Hamas operatives were instructed to maintain regular drill schedules and build military infrastructure at a steady pace, creating the illusion of routine operations. This would serve as a cover for the actual buildup leading to the October 7 attack. Additionally, the document highlights the use of repeated mobilizations of the Nukhba Force—Hamas’s elite combat unit—to obscure the timing of the attack from Israeli surveillance.

The documents further suggest that Hamas sought to exploit periods of relative calm in the region to mask its intentions. During several conflicts between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas deliberately refrained from engaging in hostilities, even though such restraint could have been perceived as weakness. This calculated inaction was part of a broader strategy to lull Israel into complacency, allowing Hamas to prepare for its eventual strike without drawing undue attention.

Following the October 7 attack, top Hamas officials reportedly acknowledged the success of their deception plan. According to the Amit Center’s analysis, these officials expressed pride in having misled Israel into believing that Hamas was not a serious threat, thus enabling the surprise attack. The documents indicate that Hamas was prepared to endure short-term losses in reputation and influence within Gaza to achieve long-term strategic gains.

The revelation of these documents adds significant depth to the understanding of Hamas’s pre-attack planning. While previous reports had suggested that Hamas engaged in deceptive practices, the newly uncovered materials provide concrete evidence of a structured, multi-faceted approach designed to mislead Israeli intelligence and military observers. The documents detail specific actions taken by Hamas to manipulate perceptions, including the orchestration of seemingly routine military activities and the careful management of diplomatic engagements.

These revelations come amid broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East. In recent months, the situation following the October 7 attack has evolved in unexpected directions. Initially, Israel’s military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran appeared to yield significant results, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring a transformation in Israel’s regional standing. However, the current landscape suggests that the anticipated outcomes of these operations have not materialized as expected.

With the impending conclusion of a U.S.-Iran deal under President Donald Trump, the dynamics of the region appear poised for a new phase. The agreement, while offering an end to U.S. military involvement in the area, does not address key concerns regarding Iran’s missile capabilities or its support for militant groups. As a result, Israel faces a complex set of challenges moving forward, requiring a reassessment of its strategic priorities and methods of engagement.

As the dust settles on the aftermath of the October 7 attack and the subsequent military campaigns, the newly revealed Hamas documents underscore the intricate nature of modern asymmetric warfare. They highlight the necessity for continuous vigilance and adaptability in counterterrorism strategies, particularly in regions where the balance of power remains fluid and unpredictable.