Heat in Europe: More than 35 degrees Celsius for 130 million people

An unprecedented heatwave has gripped Europe, affecting over 130 million people, primarily in central and eastern regions. According to calculations by the French Press Agency (AFP), these individuals are expected to experience temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius at some point today. This number represents a decrease compared to the previous day’s prediction of over 190 million people affected across Europe. Overall, maximum temperatures are anticipated to surpass 30 degrees Celsius for more than 269 million residents in Europe (excluding Turkey), down from over 380 million the day before. The analysis conducted by AFP relies on forecasts from Germany’s meteorological service and projections made in 2025 for the European population by the Joint Research Centre, combined with data from Austria’s non-governmental organization Klimadashboard.

Extensive areas around the Carpathians and the Balkans, including nearly the entire territory of Hungary, along with Serbia, Romania, Croatia, Austria, southern Poland, and western Ukraine, are expected to see mercury levels climb above 35 degrees Celsius today. In Italy, approximately 30 million people, mainly in the densely populated Po Valley, will also face such conditions. Additionally, the southwestern part of the Iberian Peninsula, which is accustomed to high temperatures, will be impacted as well. In mainland France, where the heat has slightly subsided, about three million people are still expected to be affected, although health precautions remain in place.

The impact of the record-breaking heatwave, which has caused hundreds of excess deaths and disrupted daily life across Europe for over a week, is becoming evident in the Balkans, with growing concerns about the spread of forest fires. There is also a warning that the heat could intensify again early next week in countries such as France and Germany, which have borne the heaviest burden in recent days. In Croatia, the meteorological service issued a red alert today for certain areas, including the capital Zagreb and tourist destinations Split and Dubrovnik. Dozens of firefighters, supported by four aircraft, were battling flames in a pine forest fire on the tourist island of Vis in the Adriatic Sea, located about 55 kilometers southwest of Split.

In neighboring Serbia, the national meteorological service RHMZ warned that temperatures would reach 39 degrees Celsius today. Further south, in Albania, a fire that burned several hectares of shrubland and olive trees near the village of Kllosh was brought under control last Saturday. Scientists stated that the heatwave, which began on June 20, was the worst ever recorded in Europe, with high temperatures disrupting electricity production, damaging infrastructure, and causing strain on healthcare systems. France reported 1,000 excess deaths due to the heatwave. The country's public health service noted that most of the losses related to the heatwave concerned older individuals and warned that the number is expected to increase. According to scientists, this wave of heat would have been "essentially impossible" without human-induced climate change, making high temperatures this week 100 times more likely than they would have been just two decades ago.

Meteorologists predict another rise in temperatures in the west starting around July 5-6. Luca Mercali, president of the Italian Meteorological Society, stated that temperatures are expected to rise again during this period. The areas affected appear generally similar to those impacted during the initial wave, including France, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Switzerland. While the weather will remain warmer than average, the heat and humidity will be significantly less intense than recently. For now, at least, temperatures in London remained above 30 degrees Celsius for seven consecutive days, with Wisley in Surrey reaching 36 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. For the second week of the Championships, there is more uncertainty in the forecast, but it seems likely that the warm and dry trend will continue. Long-range forecasts for the summer suggest there could be further significant bursts of heat into July and August.

Comparing this year's weather to past tournaments, if the forecast remains unchanged, the weather will be mostly dry with sunny intervals and gradually warming again. However, Wimbledon is familiar with summer heat. The hottest day recorded during the Wimbledon fortnight was on July 1, 2015, when temperatures reached 35.7 degrees Celsius in nearby Kew Gardens. During the infamous summer of 1976, on June 27, nighttime temperatures did not drop below 20.8 degrees Celsius. The All England Club currently has a heat rule in place, allowing players to request a ten-minute break when the heat stress index reaches 30.1 degrees Celsius. The heat stress index is similar to the wet bulb globe temperature, measuring not only air temperature but also considering humidity, radiant heat from the sun, and court surface temperature. The heat rule has already been triggered in the qualifying rounds this week.