Why Republicans Still Think They Can Flip New Hampshire's Senate Seat

Republicans remain optimistic about flipping New Hampshire’s Senate seat despite growing Democratic momentum in other battleground states. Former Senator John E. Sununu, running against Democratic challenger Rep. Chris Pappas, is seen as the GOP’s strongest bet in the Granite State. With the November election approaching, the race has become a focal point for both parties, as New Hampshire’s independent electorate often decides close contests. The race began after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement in March, prompting Democrats to rally behind Pappas, a former state legislator and small-business owner. Pappas’ moderate stance aligns with New Hampshire’s fickle voter base, who typically avoid extreme positions. However, Sununu’s political lineage offers Republicans a potential edge. A member of a long-standing New Hampshire political dynasty, he served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. Known for crossing party lines, including opposing parts of the Patriot Act, Sununu’s reputation as a pragmatic leader resonates with local voters. Despite Sununu’s strengths, recent polling shows him trailing Pappas by five points. A New York Times survey revealed that 42% of New Hampshire voters believe Sununu has good character, while 10 percentage points more independents rate him higher than Pappas on that metric. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating, 60% disapproval overall, 65% among independents, casts a shadow over the race. If the campaign becomes nationalized, Trump’s influence could weigh heavily on Republican prospects. Campaign finance groups are pouring resources into the race. The conservative Senate Leadership Fund has committed $17 million for Sununu, while the Trump-backed No Going Back PAC is prepared to spend $10 million on advertisements. Additionally, Americans for Prosperity Action, backed by the Koch brothers, has allocated over $2 million. Combined, outside spending exceeds $50 million in a race with fewer than 1 million registered voters. Both campaigns have expressed frustration over the high level of outside spending. During a recent campaign stop, Sununu acknowledged the challenge of maintaining focus amid the noise. “You’ve got to work really hard to keep your message focused to break through,” he said. As the race enters its final stretch, the outcome remains uncertain, with both sides vowing to push forward.