Why Pickaxe Mountain could become Iran’s next nuclear flashpoint - analysis

In a July 13 interview on the Hugh Hewitt Show, U.S. President Donald Trump stated, "We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready," before adding, "We see no activity there." This conflicting statement highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities at the Pickaxe Mountain facility. According to the Institute for Science and International Security, the site remains non-operational, and neither the U.S. president nor Israeli authorities have issued orders for strikes against it. Top defense officials from both nations have consistently maintained that there is no immediate threat from the location, suggesting that any action would be aimed at mitigating a potential long-term risk. Recent developments, however, challenge this stance. The Wall Street Journal and CNN reported that Israeli intelligence has informed the U.S. that Iran has relocated thousands of centrifuges and enriched uranium to Pickaxe Mountain. These claims have raised questions about the accuracy of earlier assessments. Despite repeated inquiries by The Jerusalem Post, none of the previously cited sources who claimed there was no current threat have provided clarification. This lack of transparency has deepened the divide between different intelligence assessments. Satellite imagery from Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, captured on June 22, 2025, underscores the evolving nature of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. While Fordow, located beneath a mountain, was partially destroyed during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, Iranian engineers reportedly constructed Pickaxe Mountain even deeper. This new facility, according to The Jerusalem Post, has remained below operational status, yet concerns persist over its potential impact. On June 4, the newspaper reported that both U.S. and Israeli officials expressed doubts about the feasibility of targeting Pickaxe Mountain through aerial attacks, citing the depth of the structure and the difficulty of penetrating such terrain. The strategic significance of Pickaxe Mountain lies in its potential to provide Iran with a "zone of immunity" if it becomes fully operational. Some senior officials in Washington and Tel Aviv view the site, alongside the 60% enriched uranium stored under rubble, as one of the two most pressing nuclear threats. However, these concerns are forward-looking rather than immediate. Given that the U.S. and Israel did not strike Fordow or Pickaxe Mountain during previous crises, including the December 2025 escalation with Iran, the decision to act now remains unclear. Trump’s public remarks suggest a shift in policy, though his comments appear to be more rhetorical than definitive. He has indicated openness to a targeted ground operation in the Strait of Hormuz or a potential aerial strike on Pickaxe Mountain. Yet, he has also emphasized his reluctance to deploy large U.S. ground forces into Iran, a sentiment that aligns with broader strategic considerations. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence appears to be focused on securing agreements regarding the neutralization of high-enriched uranium, particularly the 60% and 20% varieties, which are considered the most dangerous. This focus has led to reduced emphasis on Pickaxe Mountain, despite growing speculation about its role in Iran’s nuclear strategy. As tensions continue to evolve, the situation at Pickaxe Mountain remains a focal point of international concern. With conflicting intelligence reports and shifting priorities, the path forward for both the U.S. and Israel remains uncertain. The next steps will likely depend on further intelligence assessments, diplomatic negotiations, and the continued monitoring of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For now, the fate of Pickaxe Mountain hangs in the balance, awaiting clarity on whether it will become the next target in the ongoing nuclear standoff.