Why land-use emissions have fallen by a third this century – in six charts

Land-use emissions, encompassing deforestation, forest degradation, loss of peatlands, and tree harvesting, have declined by approximately one-third over the past three decades. According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report, published in May 2026 in Earth System Science Data, there has been a statistically significant reduction in land-use change emissions since the late 1990s. The report highlights a steep decline in these emissions after 2015, marking a notable shift in global environmental trends. The report, compiled by a team of scientists, tracks how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have evolved over time. It provides an annual assessment of emissions, typically released in the autumn before undergoing peer review and formal publication in an academic journal the following year. In its 2025 findings, the report revealed that land-use emissions averaged 5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) annually between 2015 and 2024. This represents a 23% decrease compared to the 1995–2004 period and a 19% drop relative to the 2005–2014 timeframe. In contrast, fossil fuel and cement emissions have consistently risen over the past several decades. Since 1959, these emissions have grown from an average of 11 GtCO2 in the 1960s to 35.9 GtCO2 during the 2015–2024 period. Preliminary data from the 2025 report indicates that land-use emissions in 2025 were even lower than their 2014–2025 average, reaching 4.1 GtCO2. Simultaneously, fossil fuel and cement emissions hit a record high of 38.1 GtCO2. The decline in land-use emissions since the late 1990s can largely be attributed to reduced deforestation rates, particularly permanent deforestation. Permanent deforestation involves the complete removal of forests for non-forest uses such as agriculture, mining, or urban development. This type of deforestation differs from temporary practices like selective logging or rotational farming, which involve partial canopy removal and allow for some degree of regeneration. The report also credits increasing carbon sequestration through forest regrowth as a key factor in the decline of land-use emissions. As degraded lands recover and new forests establish themselves, they absorb more atmospheric carbon dioxide, thereby reducing net emissions. These processes have contributed significantly to the observed trend of declining land-use emissions over the past two decades. The Global Carbon Budget identifies specific regions and policies that have played a role in these reductions. Countries with robust conservation efforts, reforestation programs, and sustainable land management strategies have shown measurable improvements in curbing land-use emissions. For instance, nations implementing strict anti-deforestation laws and promoting afforestation projects have seen positive outcomes in terms of carbon absorption and emission reduction. Recent trends suggest that the decline in land-use emissions has accelerated in the last decade. The report attributes this "steep drop" to a combination of factors, including enhanced enforcement of environmental regulations, improved monitoring technologies, and international cooperation aimed at preserving ecosystems. These developments have collectively contributed to a more pronounced reduction in emissions from land-use activities. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, understanding the dynamics behind the decline in land-use emissions becomes increasingly vital. While fossil fuel emissions remain on an upward trajectory, the progress made in reducing land-use-related emissions offers a glimmer of hope. However, sustaining this momentum will require ongoing commitment to environmental stewardship and policy innovation. The coming years will likely reveal whether these gains can be maintained or if new challenges emerge that could alter the current trajectory.