Why Iran is threatening Europe’s ‘strategically important’ southeast

Iran has issued threats against southeastern Europe, specifically targeting Bulgaria, as part of its broader response to the ongoing tensions with the United States and Israel. The Iranian government has warned that any nation supporting U.S. efforts to contain Iran could face retaliatory action, including missile strikes. This warning comes amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, where Iran has already launched missile attacks on multiple countries, including Jordan and potentially the U.S.-UK military base on Diego Garcia. The situation gained attention after Bulgaria's parliament approved the use of its Bezmer Air Base for U.S. military aircraft in July. This decision supports U.S. operations in the Middle East and against Iran. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Bulgarian officials that aiding U.S. "aggression" against Iran would make the country a legitimate target for retaliation. According to reports from the Financial Times, citing unnamed Iranian sources, Tehran has indicated it would consider striking Europe if the conflict with the United States escalates. Analysts suggest that southeastern Europe, particularly Bulgaria, is viewed as a strategic area due to its location near the Black Sea and its role in supplying critical resources to Ukraine. Armida van Rij, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform, noted that the region is seen as a vulnerable point for Europe, hosting NATO bases and serving as a logistical hub for military supplies. This makes it an appealing target for Iranian strategists seeking to disrupt Western alliances. Local journalists, however, describe the perception of the Iran conflict in Bulgaria as relatively distant. Angel Petrov, a Sofia-based journalist covering southeast Europe and the Middle East for Dnevnik.bg, stated that Bulgarians do not see the Iran war as crucial compared to the ongoing war in Ukraine. He explained that the economic impact of the conflict, particularly on oil prices, is deemed manageable given current levels of inflation. Additionally, he pointed out that Bulgaria struggles with the institutional capacity to resist U.S. pressure while managing both the war in Ukraine and growing Russian influence. Petrov added that the decision to allow the use of the Bezmer Air Base aligns with the country's broader diplomatic strategy. Bulgarian leaders, he suggested, felt compelled to comply with the Trump administration's requests, especially considering the complex geopolitical landscape involving Russia and the war in Ukraine. By allowing U.S. access to the airbase, Bulgaria has positioned itself as a supporter of American interests, even though the consequences of this alliance remain uncertain. There is debate over whether an Iranian attack on Europe would achieve its intended objectives. Ali Bakir, a senior non-resident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, argued that such an attack could inadvertently serve U.S. interests by drawing Europe into the conflict. This move, he suggested, would create an additional front for European nations, which have generally avoided direct involvement in the Iran issue. Such escalation could also benefit Russia's war in Ukraine, as it would further strain European military resources and potentially trigger a larger, more dangerous conflict with global economic and security repercussions. For Tehran, the threat of attacking a less powerful European state may carry greater political weight than actual missile launches. Analysts believe that the psychological impact of such a threat could be more effective than physical strikes, especially in deterring European support for U.S. actions against Iran. As the situation continues to evolve, the potential for increased tension between Iran and Europe remains a concern, with significant implications for regional stability and international relations.