Why former Soviet states now challenge Russia over Ukraine war

Former Soviet states are increasingly challenging Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine, signaling a shift in the complex dynamics between Moscow and its former neighbors. At a recent regional cooperation forum, Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, made an unscripted appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to halt the nearly four-and-a-half-year-old conflict. Tokayev suggested that the reasons behind the war were unclear, even to himself, and proposed that it might be time to freeze the situation. His comments, delivered in front of a gathering of leaders from Central Asian nations, marked a rare moment of open criticism from a traditionally deferential ally. Tokayev’s remarks came amid growing unease among post-Soviet states about the consequences of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. These nations, once considered peripheral to global affairs, are now asserting themselves more forcefully in response to the war’s economic and geopolitical fallout. Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked nation in the world, appears particularly emboldened due to its strategic position and economic ties with both Russia and the West. Its reliance on oil exports, accounting for about 35 percent of its GDP, has been disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks on tankers using the Russian port of Novorossiysk, a critical transit point for Kazakh oil. Although Ukraine has reportedly agreed to cease targeting non-Russian tankers, the disruptions have already cost Kazakhstan millions of dollars. The economic interdependence between Russia and Central Asia is profound, with shared infrastructure, mutual investments, and substantial trade turnover. Despite this, the war in Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities in these relationships. Kazakhstan, along with other Central Asian states, has sought to balance its ties with Russia while also engaging with the West. This balancing act has become more precarious as the war continues to strain regional economies and international relations. The shift in posture by Kazakhstan reflects broader changes in the post-Soviet landscape. Historically, these states viewed Russia as their dominant power, but the war in Ukraine has prompted a reassessment of their dependencies. Many of these nations have begun to question whether aligning too closely with Russia is in their long-term interest, especially as the war has led to increased sanctions and economic isolation for Moscow. While none of the Central Asian states have openly opposed Russia’s invasion, their reluctance to fully endorse the conflict indicates a growing divergence in perspectives. Experts suggest that the hesitation among post-Soviet states is not merely symbolic. It stems from practical concerns about the economic repercussions of continued hostilities. For instance, Kazakhstan’s energy sector, which is crucial to its national economy, faces risks from the instability caused by the war. Additionally, the country has been working to diversify its foreign policy, seeking closer ties with China and other Western nations to reduce its reliance on Russia. Despite these shifts, the relationship between Russia and its former allies remains deeply intertwined. Kazakhstan, for example, continues to play a vital role in helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions by facilitating financial transactions and investments. However, the recent statements by Tokayev indicate that the traditional hierarchy of influence within the region is beginning to erode. As Central Asian states grow more confident in their own positions, they are less inclined to follow Moscow’s lead on issues like the war in Ukraine. The implications of this evolving dynamic remain uncertain. While Russia maintains its dominance through economic and political leverage, the increasing assertiveness of its former allies could signal a gradual realignment of power in the region. Whether this will lead to a more balanced partnership or further tensions remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the war in Ukraine has catalyzed a transformation in the relationships between Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors, reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia.