US-Iran war: Will peace talks resume, and when?

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated significantly over the past few days, raising questions about the future of ongoing peace negotiations. Despite recent hostilities, both countries appear to remain open to diplomatic discussions, though the path forward remains uncertain. The conflict began with the United States launching attacks on 85 targets in Iran on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This action followed incidents involving commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which were reportedly attacked by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC allegedly violated a prearranged route approved by Iran, prompting the U.S. response. Iran retaliated swiftly, targeting U.S. military assets and infrastructure in Gulf states on Wednesday. This led to further U.S. strikes on 90 Iranian targets on Wednesday night and additional attacks on Iran's southern coastal and eastern provinces on Thursday. Some of these strikes reportedly targeted civilian infrastructure, according to Iranian claims, which has further strained the fragile ceasefire agreement established earlier this year. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, suggesting that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17 might be "over." His comments sparked concerns that the ceasefire could collapse. However, Trump later indicated that he would allow peace talks to continue, albeit expressing skepticism about their effectiveness. He described the Iranian leadership as "scum," indicating his frustration with the situation. By Thursday, Trump seemed to soften his position, stating that entering into a full-scale war was not the goal, although he acknowledged that returning to such a scenario remained a possibility. He noted that Iran still wanted to reach a deal. Early on Friday, reports emerged of multiple explosions across southern Iran, including in Bushehr, home to one of the country's nuclear plants, as well as in Konarak, Choghadak, and Bandar Abbas. Although the U.S. denied any involvement in these incidents, there were signs that hostilities might be subsiding. Mediation efforts by third-party nations aimed at restoring diplomatic channels suggested that both sides might be willing to engage in dialogue once again. A U.S. official confirmed to Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to negotiations, even though neither party has formally terminated the talks or declared the MoU void. The MoU, signed on June 17, outlined a 60-day ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, to facilitate the negotiation of a lasting peace deal. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran committed to allowing free passage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. pledged to lift sanctions on Iranian oil and ease its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Talks were initially scheduled to commence in Switzerland, focusing on issues such as the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's frozen assets, long-term sanctions relief, and Tehran's nuclear program. However, these discussions faced delays due to ongoing Israeli bombardments in southern Lebanon, where Israel has occupied approximately one-fifth of the territory. Despite these challenges, some direct talks took place in Switzerland, and since early this month, both sides have engaged in indirect "technical" talks in Doha, Qatar. These sessions were temporarily halted during the week-long funeral processions for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial U.S.-Israel strikes on Tehran on February 28. Trump had previously assured that U.S. attacks would not resume during the mourning period. Peace talks were anticipated to resume after the state funeral events in Iran, around July 11. However, the recent U.S. strikes against Iran—marking the third such incident during ongoing peace negotiations and occurring concurrently with the state funeral proceedings—have cast doubt on the timeline for resuming formal discussions. Iranian state media reported early on Friday that the late Supreme Leader's legacy would influence the nation's approach to negotiations, though specific implications remain unclear. As the situation unfolds, the international community watches closely, hoping for a resolution that can prevent further escalation. Both the U.S. and Iran have shown mixed signals regarding their willingness to continue talks, leaving the future of the peace process uncertain. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the current ceasefire holds or if renewed hostilities will force a new round of negotiations.