What next? Kurds say yes, Druze still say no to united Syria

Syria’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have announced their dissolution and integration into the country’s central military, marking the end of nearly 14 years of self-rule in northeastern Syria. The decision came from Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi, who stated that the SDF would cease operating as an independent force. This move follows a shift in circumstances since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, during which the Kurds expanded their control over large parts of the region and sought to preserve their autonomy even after the conflict ended. Now, the SDF-controlled territory, including its oil-rich areas, will fall under the authority of the central government led by President Bashar al-Assad. The SDF’s integration into the national army signals the end of the vision for a “decentralized Syria” featuring autonomous regions for different ethnic and religious groups. Experts suggest this change could influence developments in Sweida province, where the Druze minority continues to resist central authority. The Druze, an Arab ethnic group and one of Syria’s many religious minorities, constitute roughly three percent of the population. Sweida remains the only region in Syria that has not accepted the authority of the central government, despite the recent dissolution of the SDF. Analyst Omer Ozkizilcik, affiliated with the Atlantic Council’s Syria Project, noted that Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri had maintained regular communication with Abdi. During their discussions, al-Hijri reportedly expressed shared political aspirations with the SDF, envisioning a Syria composed of autonomous zones for the Alawites along the coast, the SDF in the northeast, and the Druze in the south. However, this vision appears increasingly unattainable following the SDF’s decision to integrate into the central military. Ozkizilcik argues that this effectively ends the concept of a fragmented, weak, and decentralized Syria. Al-Hijri recently reiterated the Druze’s ties to Israel, declaring them an “inseparable part of the state of Israel.” He emphasized commonalities in belief systems between the Druze and Israelis, though observers caution against equating such statements with formal religious alliances. While some analysts speculate that Israel might seek to annex Sweida, practical challenges, including geographical constraints and demographic factors, make such a scenario improbable. Additionally, Sweida remains reliant on the central government for essential services such as salaries, pensions, electricity, and water, despite the inability of government forces to physically enter the region. Tensions between the Druze and the central government escalated significantly in July 2025, following violent clashes between Druze and Bedouin communities in Sweida. According to reports, government forces initially intervened to quell the unrest but later faced accusations of attacking Druze populations. A United Nations report indicated that more than 1,700 people lost their lives in these conflicts, leading to widespread distrust among the Druze toward the current administration. Some residents who previously supported a unified Syria now consider the possibility of a semi-autonomous Druze state. Local activists highlight the deepening mistrust of the central government, emphasizing the need for accountability for past actions in Sweida. Lubna al-Basit, a Sweida activist, stressed that before addressing potential solutions, the government must be held responsible for the alleged massacres committed in the region. Another unnamed Druze resident currently living in the U.S. suggested that the new Syrian government may appear more moderate to Western audiences but is actually pursuing more extreme policies. He described the government’s behavior as contradictory, noting that they claim to align with Western interests while taking steps that contradict those claims. The ongoing standoff between the Druze and the central government underscores the complex dynamics shaping Syria’s future. With the SDF’s integration into the national military, the focus shifts to how the central government will manage relations with the remaining autonomous regions, particularly Sweida. The situation remains fluid, with both sides navigating a landscape marked by historical grievances, shifting allegiances, and uncertain prospects for reconciliation.