WATCH: Iran battle could reshape Middle East power map, analyst says

Iran's evolving geopolitical position amid intensifying regional and global dynamics has sparked discussions about how the balance of power in the Middle East, and beyond, might shift, according to Pejman Bijan, an Iranian-Italian academic specializing in international relations. Speaking to The Media Line, Bijan emphasized that the current struggle surrounding Iran extends far beyond the nation itself, influencing the broader configuration of power across the Middle East and into global politics. Bijan described the situation as a pivotal moment in the realignment of global influence, particularly between the United States, China, and Russia. He argued that the Middle East is at the heart of this contest, with Iran and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf serving as key players. The outcome of developments in the region over the next few months, he suggested, could determine which of these global powers will dominate in the years ahead. According to Bijan, the United States represents a sphere associated with liberal democracies, while China and Russia are linked to authoritarian regimes and state-controlled narratives. He noted that the European Union, though historically aligned with Western values, has struggled to present a unified stance on issues related to Iran and other Middle Eastern matters due to internal divisions and bureaucratic inertia. Bijan highlighted the complexity of Europe's relationship with Iran, pointing to a divide between different political factions. On one side, centrist-left groups have engaged with reformist elements within the Iranian government, including former leaders such as Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami. These efforts were mirrored by European officials like Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, who pursued dialogue with Iran's leadership. In contrast, centrist and center-right politicians have advocated for supporting Iran's younger generation, whom Bijan refers to as the "golden generation." This group, he explained, is pushing for greater political freedoms and democratic reforms within the Islamic Republic. Bijan also examined the implications of the recent Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. He viewed this pact as a reflection of diverging political and economic trajectories, with one path leading toward the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious infrastructure project, announced during the G20 summit in 2023, aims to create a comprehensive trade and transportation network connecting India with Europe via the Persian Gulf, Arab states, and Israel. To realize the full potential of IMEC, Bijan stressed the importance of implementing the Abraham Accords, which have facilitated new diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab nations. He envisioned a route stretching from Mumbai through the United Arab Emirates and Israel’s Haifa port, ultimately reaching the Mediterranean and the Italian port of Trieste. Europe's role in this unfolding scenario remains uncertain, according to Bijan. While the continent possesses historical democratic credentials and considerable economic clout, it lacks a cohesive foreign policy capable of countering the growing influence of Russia and China. He warned that Europe's inability to forge a unified strategy leaves it sidelined in critical global decisions affecting the Middle East. As tensions continue to simmer in the region, the choices made by both Iran and its neighbors will likely shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come. With multiple pathways emerging, the direction of the Middle East, and its impact on the rest of the world, remains fluid and unpredictable.