What is the Russian military doing in the border area with Finland?

The Russian military has been increasing its presence along the border with Finland, according to reports from Finnish and German experts. The situation has drawn attention from Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, who is currently visiting Finland to assess the country's efforts to strengthen its defense against potential threats from Russia. The 1,300-kilometre-long border runs through sparsely populated areas of taiga forest and rural regions, with some sections near rivers and lakes. Its northernmost point lies at the tripoint where Finland, Russia, and Norway meet, while its southernmost reaches the Gulf of Finland, adjacent to Estonian waters. Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, cross-border traffic between Russia and Finland has significantly declined. Today, only freight trains remain permitted to cross the border. In contrast, military activity has increased substantially. On the Russian side, the Baltic Fleet and the Northern Fleet are stationed in the region, both playing key roles in Moscow’s nuclear deterrence strategy. Experts suggest that the area is particularly sensitive due to its strategic location and the growing military commitments of NATO members Finland and Sweden. Michael Jonas, a researcher at the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, highlights how the long land border presents a challenge for Finland, which is now part of NATO. He notes that despite earlier optimism over Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession, the vast border with Russia remains a critical security concern. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Wadephul has praised Finland as a model for strengthening resilience against external threats. In 2022, President Vladimir Putin announced plans to create a fifth military district, later named the Leningrader District, which includes the border region with Finland. This move was formalized in spring 2024 through a presidential decree. The establishment of this new district is believed to aim at streamlining command structures and improving operational efficiency. At the time, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that 250 measures were planned as part of the reform, including expanding troop numbers and forming an army corps potentially numbering up to 100,000 soldiers. The focus would include specialized training for drone operations, though the ministry has kept much of the region’s activities confidential. Despite these developments, current estimates suggest that only around 20,000 Russian troops are stationed along the border, far below the levels seen during the Cold War. According to Jonas, this number represents a low point since the end of the Cold War, with most forces deployed in Ukraine. However, he believes Russia is likely investing in upgrading its military infrastructure along the Finnish border. This assessment aligns with statements from Finland’s army commander, Pasi Valimaki, who told Swedish television channel SVT that he expects Russia to deploy up to 80,000 troops along the border. Other estimates place the figure even higher, suggesting up to 115,000 soldiers could be stationed there. Recent satellite imagery has also revealed signs of heightened activity near the border. Scandinavian media reported last month that Russia appears to have begun constructing a new base approximately 190 kilometers away from the border. These developments underscore the ongoing militarization of the region and raise concerns about the implications for regional stability. As tensions persist, the situation continues to evolve, with further updates expected in the coming weeks.