Warnings against cooperation with the AfD

Elections in Saxony-Anhalt are intensifying as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads in recent polls with 41 to 42 percent support, according to surveys released this week. The far-right party, classified as right extremist by the state's constitutional protection agency, appears poised for a decisive victory in the September 6 vote. CDU leader and current Prime Minister Sven Schulze has raised concerns over potential alliances that could bolster the AfD’s chances of forming a government. Schulze warned that the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, could act as a kingmaker for AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund if the party secures parliamentary representation. The AfD aims for a majority of seats, though its current polling numbers fall short of guaranteeing such an outcome. However, the likelihood of the AfD achieving a governing position increases if smaller parties fail to meet the five-percent threshold required to enter parliament. This would reduce the number of competing factions, potentially allowing the AfD to secure enough seats for a majority. According to internal calculations, the AfD does not necessarily need 50 percent of the votes to achieve this goal. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s top candidate, has expressed interest in securing around 45 percent of the vote, which he believes would give him sufficient leverage to form a government. However, he has ruled out seeking a minority administration, stating his preference for a “stable team” to govern. Other major parties have explicitly rejected cooperation with the AfD. The ruling CDU, currently trailing behind the AfD with 22 to 24 percent support, has maintained its stance against forming coalitions with either the Left Party or the AfD. The Left Party, led by candidate Eva von Angern, has signaled openness to dialogue with the CDU, emphasizing their shared opposition to the AfD gaining power. In a statement during a televised debate earlier this month, von Angern stated that the Left Party was prepared to take all necessary steps to prevent the AfD from attaining political influence. The CDU’s existing coalition with the SPD and FDP is under threat due to the low poll numbers for these parties. The SPD is projected to receive just five percent of the vote, while the Greens, Free Democrats, and BSW are expected to fall below the five-percent threshold. If the AfD fails to secure a clear majority, a CDU-led minority government supported by one or two other parties might emerge. However, the CDU’s internal rules prohibit any form of cooperation with the AfD or the Left Party. Sven Schulze has voiced particular concern over the possibility of the BSW supporting the AfD. He warned that should the BSW gain parliamentary representation, it would likely back Siegmund for the role of prime minister. This scenario would make it extremely difficult to block an AfD-led government. Schulze made these remarks in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine midweek, highlighting the potential risks posed by the BSW’s alignment with the AfD. Internal warnings within the BSW have also emerged regarding the risk of the party being perceived as enabling the AfD. Thuringia’s Infrastructure and Digital Minister Steffen Schütz, a member of the BSW, cautioned against the party playing a facilitating role for the AfD. His comments reflect growing unease within the BSW about the implications of aligning too closely with the far-right party. As the election date approaches, the political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt remains highly volatile. With the AfD leading in the polls and the CDU struggling to maintain its position, the possibility of an AfD-led government looms large. The situation underscores the challenges facing traditional parties in maintaining stability amid shifting voter preferences and the rising influence of far-right politics.