The National Meteorological Service forecasted what winter will be like until September: how it affects the NEA

The National Weather Service (SMN) has released its quarterly climate forecast for the period spanning July through September 2026, offering insights into temperature trends and precipitation patterns across Argentina. This forecast aims to provide a broader understanding of how the winter season will unfold, particularly focusing on regions such as the Northeast (NEA) and the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA). The report highlights that while certain areas might experience temperatures slightly above average, others could see more typical conditions, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between long-term trends and daily weather fluctuations.

For the AMBA region, the SMN predicts relatively stable thermal conditions without significant anomalies. While cold air masses may lead to very chilly days, the overall temperature average for the quarter is expected to remain within normal parameters for the time of year. In terms of precipitation, the central-eastern part of Buenos Aires province, including the metropolitan area, is anticipated to receive rainfall levels that are either normal or slightly higher than usual. However, it's important to note that this forecast reflects general tendencies rather than specific day-to-day predictions.

Looking beyond the AMBA, the SMN forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures in several regions. These include the Northwest (NOA), Cuyo, Córdoba Province, parts of Salta, Formosa, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, the coastal regions, the northwest of Buenos Aires Province, La Pampa, and western and southern Patagonia. Conversely, the eastern and southern parts of Buenos Aires and the eastern portion of Patagonia are expected to maintain temperatures within their typical range for the season.

Regarding precipitation, the forecast indicates a higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall in the northern part of the coastal region and the eastern part of Patagonia. Normal or slightly above-normal rainfall is also predicted for the central-eastern part of Buenos Aires Province, the southern part of Cuyo, and the western part of Patagonia. Meanwhile, normal rainfall levels are expected in the north of the country, the south of the coastal region, Córdoba, San Luis, La Pampa, the west of Buenos Aires, and the south of Patagonia. It should be noted that the NOA and the northern part of Cuyo are likely to face drier conditions, which is characteristic of winter in these areas.

The quarterly forecast serves as a guide to understand the general evolution of the season but does not replace daily weather forecasts or alerts issued by the SMN. It acknowledges that despite the overall trend, there can still be instances of extreme weather events such as cold snaps, storms, heavy rains, or warm days, even when the three-month average remains within normal limits. This information helps communities prepare for potential challenges associated with seasonal changes.

As the winter season progresses, residents of the AMBA have already experienced cooler temperatures and isolated rain showers. On Sunday, June 28, the SMN reported a chance of light rain accompanied by winds reaching up to 31 kilometers per hour. Despite the presence of clouds throughout the morning, the sky began to clear later in the afternoon, leading to a drop in temperature to 10 degrees Celsius. For the following week, the forecast suggests continued cool mornings with minimum temperatures ranging between 3 to 5 degrees Celsius and maximums around 11 to 14 degrees Celsius.

While the colder temperatures pose a challenge for outdoor activities, the forecast also includes periods of sunshine, providing opportunities for those who prefer to spend time outdoors. As the new month begins, the weather pattern is expected to remain consistent, with minor variations in temperature readings. Preparations for potential heavy rainfall are advised, considering the guidelines set forth by international organizations and local risk management systems to ensure safety and mitigate flood risks during intense weather events.