Head of Estonian Intelligence: Everything in Russia could change overnight

The head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service has warned that Russia could undergo dramatic changes overnight, citing growing dissatisfaction with President Vladimir Putin's ongoing war in Ukraine and mounting internal pressures. Kaupo Rosin, director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), made these remarks during an extensive interview with the British newspaper Telegraph, emphasizing that Putin faces increasing risks whether he continues the conflict or attempts to end it. According to Rosin, Putin’s options have become increasingly constrained. If he persists with the war, Russia could face escalating military losses, economic hardship, and internal tensions. Conversely, ending the war might undermine his political position, as parts of Russian society and the elite could interpret such a move as a sign of weakness. “At this moment, he has only bad options,” Rosin stated. “Every decision he makes brings different risks.” Rosin noted that there are no serious discussions among Russia’s political and economic elites about achieving a complete victory in Ukraine. He described a rising sense of discontent across all layers of Russian society, from ordinary citizens to oligarchs. While he does not expect mass protests on the streets, he emphasized the importance of what high-level figures, who control money, weapons, and information, think about the war. These individuals, he argued, are currently engaging in discussions about various scenarios and ways to conclude the conflict. The possibility of rapid change in Russia was underscored by Rosin through the example of the June 2023 mutiny led by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. This event, he said, demonstrated how fragile the Russian system can be from within. “For us, it was a signal of how hollow the system can be internally,” he explained. “Such regimes often appear very strong externally but can be surprisingly weak inside.” Rosin highlighted that Russian military losses on the battlefield now exceed the number of new recruits Moscow can muster. Another major challenge, he added, is the economy, particularly the impact of Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure and Western sanctions. He estimated that Russia’s budget deficit could reach around 10 trillion rubles this year, roughly half of what the country allocates for defense. Sanctions have also complicated Russia’s ability to borrow internationally, forcing the government to consider raising taxes and imposing additional demands on oligarchs and businesses, an approach likely to further increase public frustration. If Putin wishes to continue the war at its current intensity, he will need to find new soldiers. Rosin suggested that a new mobilization could be one option. “Everyone in Russian society knows that mobilization is coming,” he said. “There is much talk about it in Russia. Everyone knows someone who works in the military and says mobilization is coming.” However, when asked directly if he expects Putin to soon make such a decision, Rosin did not offer a firm prediction. “Right now, the possibilities are balanced,” he said. “Everyone thinks it’s coming. The system is prepared. But we haven’t seen the decisions yet.” Rosin also addressed the potential for a conventional Russian attack on a NATO member state, a sensitive issue given Estonia’s proximity to Russia, sharing nearly 300 kilometers of border with the country. He assessed that such an attack is unlikely in the near future. “I don’t think a conventional Russian attack on any NATO member is probable in the near future,” he said, though he did not elaborate further on the reasoning behind this assessment.