Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins

Victorian state polls indicate the Coalition is leading Labor by margins ranging from narrow to substantial ahead of the November 28 election. Recent surveys suggest the Liberal-National Party (LNP) coalition holds a favorable position in a potential two-party contest against the Australian Labor Party (ALP). This comes just over three months before voters head to the polls, following the leadership change within Labor when Ben Carroll took over from Jacinta Allan as premier and party leader on July 28. Five new polls have been released since Carroll assumed leadership, showing varying degrees of support for both major parties. According to the latest data, the Coalition leads Labor by between 51–49 percent (as per the Morgan SMS poll) and 57–43 percent (from the Redbridge survey). The results suggest a shift toward a traditional two-party race, with One Nation's influence waning in several of these polls, though it saw a slight increase in the Resolve poll. One Nation's decline to the low 20s in primary votes could benefit the Coalition, making it more likely to secure a majority in the 88-seat lower house. Both major parties hold the largest shares of the primary vote, which further supports the idea of a straightforward contest between the Coalition and Labor. Ben Carroll’s approval ratings have improved compared to his predecessor Jacinta Allan, but he still maintains a negative net approval rating, except in the Morgan poll. However, there has been no noticeable boost in Labor’s voting intentions since the leadership transition. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Jess Wilson enjoys a positive net approval rating in double digits, contributing positively to the Coalition's standing. With Labor having held power in Victoria for the past 12 years and 23 of the last 27, there appears to be a growing sentiment among voters that it might be time for a change. A recent Resolve poll conducted between August 9 and 15 found the Coalition securing 27% of the primary vote, matching their earlier figures, while Labor fell slightly to 25%. One Nation rose to 23%, the Greens remained stable at 12%, and independent candidates retained 7%. Despite Labor’s reduced primary vote, the Coalition is projected to gain advantage through preference flows. If they finish in the top two in each electorate, they would likely benefit significantly due to the single-member electoral system used for the lower house. The Resolve poll estimated a 53–47 lead for the Coalition over Labor based on respondent preferences. Carroll’s net likeability stands at -4, a marked improvement from Allan’s -36 in July. Jess Wilson’s net likeability increased by five points to reach +18, tying her highest recorded level. One Nation’s state leader Warren Pickering maintained a neutral net likeability score of zero. In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson received 26%, Carroll 20%, and Pickering 10%. This reflects a notable shift from July when Wilson had led Allan by 43–24. Additionally, 46% of respondents believed that Carroll’s leadership change did not represent a genuine shift in direction or performance, while 34% disagreed. Conversely, 46% felt Wilson and the Liberals were capable of effective governance, compared to 34% who did not. Respondents overwhelmingly supported the notion that politicians should face public scrutiny regarding corruption linked to the Big Build infrastructure program once a royal commission is established, with 72% agreeing versus 3% opposing. In Queensland, a Resolve poll conducted alongside federal surveys showed the Liberal National Party (LNP) gaining ground with 34% of the primary vote, up four percentage points since the June poll. Labor followed with 25%, up one point, while One Nation’s share dropped to 20%, down four points. Analyst Kevin Bonham estimates the LNP leading Labor by approximately 55–45 in a two-party contest. Meanwhile, a byelection for the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour is set for August 29, following the resignation of former Labor MP Paul Papalia in July. At the March 2025 WA election, Papalia secured victory over the Liberals after preferences by 61.5–38.5. The outcome of this byelection could provide insight into shifting voter sentiments and potential impacts on broader political dynamics.