Majority of respondents support the intervention law, SDS against GS

Slovenia’s post-hoc legislative referendum on the Law on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia will take place on December 6, with deadlines for necessary procedural steps beginning to run on October 30, just before the holiday season. Public opinion polls released this week indicate that a majority of voters intend to support the legislation, which the ruling coalition describes as a driver for economic growth. The survey data suggests that nearly half of all respondents plan to participate in the vote, while specific provisions regarding tax reductions have garnered significantly higher approval than others within the bill. The primary poll was conducted by the Research Center of the Dr. Janez Evangelist Krek Institute in Ljubljana under its "Utrip druzbe" program. The study surveyed 701 individuals in October. According to these findings, almost 48 percent of participants stated they would definitely attend the referendum, while approximately 23 percent said they probably would. This projected turnout exceeds the participation rate recorded during previous referendums held on October 11, which stood at slightly less than 55 percent. However, institute researchers caution that actual attendance often differs from predicted levels. In terms of voting intent, the data shows a clear preference for keeping the law in force. Specifically, 28.6 percent of respondents said they would certainly vote yes, and another 27.2 percent indicated they probably would. Combined, this amounts to nearly 56 percent support. On the opposing side, 17.8 percent said they would definitely vote against the measure, and 11.5 percent said they probably would, totaling 29.3 percent opposition. Approximately 15 percent of those polled remained undecided. Support varies significantly depending on the specific intervention measures included in the law. The provision lowering value-added tax on electricity and heating energy enjoys the highest backing, supported by roughly 87 percent of respondents. Reduced taxation on renting apartments to young people and families follows closely with nearly 86 percent support. Lowering VAT on basic food items is backed by over 83 percent of the sample. Conversely, the so-called social cap, which applies to gross monthly salaries exceeding 7,500 euros, faces the strongest resistance. More than 30 percent of respondents oppose this clause, although more than 52 percent still support it. Additionally, nearly 68 percent of participants support the proposal that pensioners should no longer be required to pay contributions for long-term care. Another recent survey commissioned by POP TV from the research firm Mediana presents a tighter margin. That poll found that nearly 37 percent of respondents would support the law, while 31 percent would oppose it, leaving about one-third undecided. While both studies show a lead for the government's position, the IJEK poll indicates a wider gap of 26.5 percentage points compared to Mediana's six-point difference. The high number of undecided voters in the Mediana survey suggests the final outcome remains open until the day of voting. Political parties are positioning themselves around the referendum. The Social Democratic Party of Slovenia, known as SDS, currently leads in party popularity polls. In the IJEK survey, SDS received 24.7 percent support, followed by the Freedom Movement at 19.8 percent. The Socialist Party of Slovenia trailed at 10.6 percent. A joint list comprising the New Slovenia party, the Liberal Democrats, and Focus secured 10.3 percent. Left received 8.9 percent, while Resni.ca gained 4.5 percent and Democrats 4.4 percent. The Mediana poll showed similar trends, placing SDS at 21.8 percent and the Freedom Movement at 19.4 percent. Critics of the legislation argue that the proposed tax cuts lack safeguards to ensure benefits reach consumers. Monika Weiss, writing in Mladina, noted that the law does not include legal mechanisms to prevent lower VAT rates from being absorbed by retail margins rather than passed on to shoppers. She cited the example of Croatia, where a VAT reduction on food introduced in April 2022 did not result in lower consumer prices but instead benefited retailers, many of which are foreign-owned. The ruling coalition, supported by business associations, maintains that the law will enhance economic competitiveness, reduce costs for residents, and improve tax treatment, thereby accelerating national development. Labor unions and left-wing political groups are campaigning against the measure. The Confederation of Unions of the Public Sector, led by Branimir Strukelj, argues that implementing the law would tear society apart. Political actors agree that the referendum, falling on St. Michael's Day, will have a substantial impact on the country's future. Both sides view the upcoming vote as far more consequential than the advisory referendums held earlier in October. Those advisory votes saw broad support for proposals such as banning the wearing of burqas in public spaces and reducing VAT on basic foods and energy. The campaign period is characterized by polarization, with each side emphasizing arguments that align with their political stance. Proponents highlight potential economic gains, while opponents focus on perceived inequities in the social cap provisions. As the deadline for completing preparatory tasks approaches on October 30, attention turns to whether the high predicted turnout materializes and how the undecided segment of the electorate casts its ballots on December 6.