Will Arabs be Israel’s kingmakers?

US Vice President JD Vance stated on Tuesday that he is not endorsing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the upcoming parliamentary elections, declaring that he will focus exclusively on the United States midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Speaking at a political rally in Ohio, Vance clarified his position regarding the Israeli leader, who faces a decisive vote on October 27. The statement comes days after President Donald Trump issued a public endorsement of Netanyahu, creating a distinct divergence in support between the two senior American officials. Vance addressed the media directly, saying, "I’m not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I’m not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu." He emphasized that his political energy is directed toward domestic affairs, noting that he is "very focused on getting candidates elected in the United States of America." When pressed on why he would not join the President in supporting the incumbent Israeli premier, Vance referenced his limited history of intervening in foreign politics. He noted that he has endorsed only one foreign candidate in his lifetime, referring to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Vance remarked that this previous endorsement "didn't go particularly well," despite his personal admiration for Orban. Consequently, he stated he will not endorse any more foreign candidates, either now or in the future. This stance contrasts sharply with the actions of President Trump, who declared his "complete and total endorsement" of Netanyahu earlier this week. In a post on the social platform Truth Social, Trump warned that if Israel chose a leader other than Netanyahu, the United States would be forced to handle certain tasks independently, a burden he said he was not inclined to accept. Trump described Netanyahu as a "Great Warrior Prime Minister" and a superior partner in combating the Islamic Republic of Iran. The President further characterized the Israeli leader as strong, brave, and brilliant, arguing that the President's endorsement carries the most weight in American and international political history. During an earlier interview with journalist Mark Halperin, conducted shortly after Trump’s announcement, Vance avoided giving a direct yes-or-no answer regarding his support for Netanyahu’s reelection. When asked if he would follow the President’s lead, Vance replied that he endorses American candidates and that his focus is on the midterms. He explicitly stated, "So I’m not getting involved in Israeli elections." Halperin continued to press the Vice President for a clearer response, but Vance reiterated that he was not participating in the Israeli electoral process. Vance’s comments were made less than a week before the Israeli general election, which many observers consider potentially the most consequential in the nation’s history. Prime Minister Netanyahu is seeking to retain power against a coalition of opposition parties aiming to dislodge what critics describe as the right-wing government in Israel’s history. The timing of the statements highlights the internal dynamics within the US administration regarding foreign policy influence. While the President has taken an active role in signaling preference for a specific outcome, the Vice President has drawn a firm boundary, prioritizing the domestic electoral cycle. The Israeli election takes place against a backdrop of complex demographic and political shifts. Arab citizens of Israel, who constitute just over 20 percent of the population, hold significant potential influence in the vote. Their theoretical electoral weight exceeds 20 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Many Arab voters share the objective of the Jewish opposition bloc: to remove Netanyahu from office. In mixed cities such as Ramla, where Jews and Arabs live in close proximity, the election is viewed as a pivotal moment for societal cohesion. Residents in areas like Ramla, which has a history of intercommunal tension dating back to the 2021 unrest, often cite economic stability and peace as their primary concerns. Despite the high stakes and the intense rhetoric surrounding the campaign, local life in mixed communities continues with a blend of cultural practices. Markets in towns like Ramla feature a mix of Hebrew and Arabic speakers, reflecting the intertwined nature of the populations. Historical grievances, including periods of military rule and past incidents of violence, remain part of the collective memory, yet many residents express a desire for normalcy and shared economic interests. The outcome of the October 27 vote will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or if a new government is formed, with implications extending beyond Israel’s borders to affect regional alliances and US diplomatic posture. Vance’s refusal to align publicly with Trump’s explicit backing marks a notable procedural difference in how the two officials engage with allied nations' internal politics. By citing his singular prior experience with foreign endorsements as a cautionary tale, Vance signaled a strategic retreat from direct interventionist messaging. His team indicated that the President’s endorsement is ultimately the factor that matters internationally, leaving the Vice President to concentrate on securing victories for American candidates in the coming weeks. The disparity in approach offers insight into the division of labor within the current administration, with the President handling high-profile diplomatic signals and the Vice President focusing on domestic mobilization. As the election date approaches, attention will likely shift to the final polling numbers and the strategies employed by both Netanyahu and his opponents to secure a governing majority.