Untersuchung Finanzkontrolle – Wenn im Abstimmungsbüchlein falsche Zahlen stehen

In July 2026, Switzerland's Federal Audit Office (Eidgenössische Finanzkontrolle, or EFK) released findings revealing significant flaws in the federal government’s projections used in public referendums. The investigation was initiated by the Federal Council following repeated instances of inaccurate forecasts in past years. One notable example was the 2016 referendum on abolishing the marriage penalty, which was later annulled by the Federal Court due to a miscalculation. At the time, the government had estimated that around 80,000 couples would benefit from the change, but the actual number turned out to be over 450,000. This error led to the invalidation of the vote, marking the first and so far only instance where a national referendum has been declared null and void in Swiss history.

The EFK examined seven referendums and found issues in three of them. Among the problems identified were outdated figures being used in the voting materials and insufficient transparency regarding uncertainties in the projections. These shortcomings made it difficult for voters to accurately assess the reliability of the information presented to them. The audit also highlighted that the federal government often focused narrowly on financial implications when preparing its forecasts, while neglecting other important aspects such as social and environmental impacts. For instance, less than five percent of the reviewed documents included predictions about environmental effects, despite their relevance to many policy proposals.

The EFK proposed several recommendations aimed at improving the accuracy and transparency of future projections. It suggested incorporating more data experts into the process and enhancing quality control measures, including the implementation of a strict two-person review system. Additionally, the report called for greater openness about how these projections are developed and their level of reliability. To enable professionals to verify the calculations, the EFK recommended making the underlying data and models publicly available whenever possible. This would allow for independent scrutiny and help ensure that the numbers used in referendums are both accurate and transparent.

The Federal Council responded positively to the findings, acknowledging the need for improvement and supporting the general direction of the recommendations. However, given the current fiscal constraints, they emphasized that implementing these changes should occur within existing resource limits. While this response indicates a willingness to address the issues raised, it also suggests that progress might be gradual and cautious.

The revelations have sparked discussions about the role of data accuracy in democratic processes. With referendums playing a central role in Swiss governance, ensuring that citizens receive reliable information is crucial. The case of the 2016 marriage penalty referendum serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of flawed projections. As the EFK continues to work on refining the methods used for forecasting, there remains a pressing need to balance thoroughness with practicality in the face of limited resources.

Looking ahead, the focus will likely shift towards implementing the EFK’s recommendations step by step. This includes training officials in better data handling practices and possibly revising internal procedures to prevent similar errors in the future. Public trust in the integrity of referendums could hinge on whether these reforms lead to measurable improvements in the accuracy and transparency of the information provided to voters. The coming months will be critical in determining how effectively the Federal Council can address these concerns while navigating the complexities of budgetary limitations.