UN Security Council launches informal voting to choose next chief

The United Nations Security Council commenced the selection process for the next secretary-general on Thursday, initiating the first informal “straw poll” among seven contenders vying to replace António Guterres upon the completion of his second five-year term on December 31, 2026. The vote, conducted in private, aimed to gauge support for the candidates, who include four women and three men. Among them are Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Olara Otunnu of Uganda, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, and Macky Sall of Senegal. Following the initial round of voting, representatives of the 15 Security Council members remained silent regarding the results, maintaining the confidentiality of the process. While Rafael Grossi, currently leading the International Atomic Energy Agency, enjoys considerable international recognition, analysts suggest that no single candidate currently holds a definitive edge in the race, which is anticipated to span several months. The U.N. Security Council president, Zenon Ngay Mukongo, representing the Democratic Republic of the Congo, confirmed that a second round of the straw poll would be scheduled in the near future. He also noted that the nominating countries of the candidates would be informed of the initial outcomes, although no public disclosure is planned. Diplomatic circles remain cautious in forecasting the outcome due to the influence exerted by the five permanent members of the Security Council, United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom, who have not yet expressed their preferences. A candidate must secure at least nine votes from the 15 council members to proceed, while simultaneously avoiding a veto from any of the permanent members, a challenge compounded by existing divisions among these nations. Upon clearing these hurdles, the selected candidate’s name will be forwarded to the General Assembly for final approval. The first straw poll marked the Security Council’s return to a long-standing practice, originally introduced in the early 1980s to resolve deadlocks between competing candidates. Despite criticisms from certain nations over the lack of transparency, the method has continued in modified form. During the voting, each member state was required to submit an anonymous ballot assigning one of three labels to each candidate: “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” This system allows those without support to opt out gracefully, though participation is not mandatory. Initially, all ballots were of the same color, but after an unspecified number of rounds, the ballots of the permanent members would change color, enabling the identification of potential vetoes without revealing which nation issued them. Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group remarked that the straw polls might reveal candidates who are not viable, allowing them to step back respectfully. He noted that it is unlikely any single candidate will emerge with a clear majority. Traditionally, the position of secretary-general rotates among different regions, and this year, the expectation is that the new leader will come from Latin America, a region represented by multiple candidates. Panama’s Ambassador to the U.N., Eloy Alfaro de Alba, emphasized the importance of selecting a female candidate from Latin America. Additionally, numerous states advocate for the first-ever female secretary-general. According to reports from two unnamed diplomats, the preliminary informal poll suggested that Rebeca Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica, was positioned as the early front-runner, followed by Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, the former foreign minister of Guyana. One diplomat noted that Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was unexpectedly placed in third position among the seven candidates.