A NASA expert says to prepare for the risks of an asteroid impact

NASA scientist Humberto Campins has urged humanity to prepare for the potential threat of an asteroid impact, emphasizing that while individuals need not worry personally, civilization must take the risk seriously. Speaking during the conference "The Many Pathways to Space" in Oviedo, Campins highlighted that large asteroid impacts, like the one that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, are inevitable unless the necessary technologies and programs are developed to deflect such objects. According to Campins, there are currently no known asteroids posing an immediate threat to Earth, and the probability of an impact within a person's lifetime is very low. However, he stressed that long-term survival as a species depends on implementing planetary defense strategies. The concept of planetary defense involves monitoring near-Earth objects and developing methods to alter their trajectories should they pose a danger. The idea of planetary defense gained traction at least three to four decades ago when NASA successfully convinced the U.S. government of the existence of such a threat. Since then, NASA has coordinated a global network of telescopes and scientists dedicated to discovering asteroids and assessing their potential risks using the Torino Scale, which evaluates the likelihood of an impact based on probability models. Despite the lack of imminent threats, multiple space agencies collaborate internationally to conduct drills every three years. These exercises help maintain institutional memory and readiness in case of a real threat. NASA refers to these efforts collectively as "planetary defense," exemplified by missions like DART, which demonstrated in 2022 that it is possible to change the orbit of a small asteroid through kinetic impact, a feat that might sound like science fiction but is scientifically validated. In April 2029, the asteroid Apophis, measuring approximately 375 meters in diameter, will pass closer than 32,000 kilometers to Earth’s surface, below the orbits of many communication satellites. This proximity could allow for visual observation from Earth without specialized equipment. While this encounter poses no current risk of deflection, Campins noted that Apophis might alter its orbit in the future, potentially leading to a collision with Earth. To better understand Apophis, NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission and the European Space Agency’s RAMSES spacecraft, still under construction, will study how the asteroid changes shape and trajectory under Earth’s gravitational influence. These studies aim to provide critical insights into asteroid behavior and potential mitigation strategies. Beyond the threat of impact, Campins pointed out that asteroids approaching Earth can reach velocities comparable to Earth’s, making them ideal candidates for space mining. He referenced NASA’s previous OSIRIS-REx mission, which discovered hydrated silicates, essentially clay, on the asteroid Bennu. Water extracted from such materials could serve as valuable fuel for satellites orbiting Earth, as it can be split into hydrogen and oxygen. Additionally, Campins mentioned that asteroids contain resources such as platinum, rare earth elements, and other materials that, while not necessarily precious, could enable the fabrication of structures in space, reducing the need to transport non-essential components from Earth. Although the practical application of asteroid mining is still in early stages, the potential benefits are substantial. As research continues, the focus remains on both mitigating potential threats and exploring opportunities presented by near-Earth asteroids. Scientists and engineers are working to refine detection methods and develop more effective deflection techniques, ensuring that humanity is prepared for any future encounters with celestial bodies that could pose a risk.