Ukraine war hits civilian air traffic in Russia

Moscow’s four main airports faced near-daily operational suspensions in October due to Ukrainian drone attacks, according to the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo. Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports frequently halted flight operations, with closures lasting up to nine hours on certain days. This pattern of disruption has persisted for months, reflecting the growing impact of the conflict on civil aviation within Russia. In early September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. He addressed airlines using Russian airspace, insurers, and entities relying on major Russian airports. The following day, Kyiv transmitted a similar warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine’s own airspace has remained closed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russian aviation authorities manage these disruptions through an emergency safety protocol known as the "Carpet" plan, administered by Rosaviatsiya. This protocol mandates the immediate closure of airspace over specific regions or around affected airports. It activates when an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are employed, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Once declared, severe restrictions apply to all air traffic. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the Friendly Avia Support consultancy, explained that any drone constitutes a military threat under this framework. He noted that Yemen’s Houthi rebels have successfully disrupted Saudi airspace. Laneckij argued that Ukraine’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis. Consequently, he suggested that Ukraine could easily disturb or halt Moscow’s air traffic node if the war expands further. Military analyst Jan Matvejev agreed that Ukraine possesses sufficient resources to paralyze Moscow’s airports. Although Zelenskyy’s goal of total airspace closure has not yet been realized, Matvejev stated that Ukrainian forces remain committed to the objective. He emphasized that triggering the "Carpet" protocol requires only simple drones. These devices do not need warheads or extensive ranges. Matvejev claimed that Ukraine’s industrial sector produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster of The Atlantic magazine reported in October that Ukraine’s operation to disable Russian airspace is just beginning. Citing informed sources, Shuster indicated that more significant disruptions are anticipated. Regarding defensive capabilities, Matvejev observed that Russian air defense systems have failed to fully intercept Ukrainian drones entering the capital region. He asserted that if interception were feasible, Russian forces would have already succeeded. Furthermore, he stated that additional air defense reserves would have been deployed if they existed. Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for invoking the "Carpet" protocol to enhance security. However, this approach carries increased risks. He cited the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight as a potential precedent. Investigators determined that the aircraft was struck by a Russian air defense missile intended to counter drones. The incident resulted in the deaths of 38 people. Matvejev echoed concerns that Russian defenses might again mistakenly target civilian aircraft. He noted that little has changed regarding Russia’s air defense protocols since the Azerbaijani flight was hit last year. In operations against low-flying drones, targets are visually identified and engaged with machine guns. Such scenarios highlight the danger of friendly fire incidents involving commercial airliners operating in contested airspace. The situation underscores the vulnerability of civil infrastructure to modern asymmetric warfare tactics. While Russian authorities maintain strict controls over their airspace, the persistent threat from unmanned aerial vehicles complicates safe operations. Airlines and insurers face heightened uncertainty as they navigate routes through potentially hostile zones. The economic implications of prolonged airport closures continue to accumulate, affecting both domestic travel and international logistics. Experts suggest that the dynamic between offensive drone production and defensive interception remains critical. Ukraine’s ability to manufacture large quantities of inexpensive drones contrasts with the high cost and limited availability of advanced air defense systems. This imbalance favors sustained pressure on Russian aviation hubs. As the conflict evolves, the frequency and duration of airport shutdowns may increase, further straining the capacity of Russian civil aviation networks. The international community monitors these developments closely, given the implications for global air safety standards. The warnings issued by Ukraine serve as formal notifications to the aviation industry regarding the deteriorating security environment. Passengers and cargo operators must contend with unpredictable schedule changes and route diversions. The interplay between military objectives and civilian infrastructure protection presents complex challenges for policymakers and military commanders alike. Ultimately, the effectiveness of current measures depends on technological advancements and tactical adjustments by both sides. Whether Russia can secure its airspace without compromising civilian safety remains a central question. The ongoing tension highlights the broader strategic stakes involved in controlling key transportation corridors during wartime.