Uganda coffee exports hit by weaker prices

Uganda’s coffee export earnings experienced a significant decline in May 2025, marking a sharp downturn for the nation’s primary agricultural export. According to a report released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the country generated $151.7 million from coffee exports during the month, representing a decrease of approximately 38% compared to the $244 million recorded in May 2024. This decline reflects the growing sensitivity of Uganda’s coffee industry to shifts in global market dynamics. Alongside the reduction in revenue, export volumes also saw a notable drop. In May 2025, Uganda shipped 617,491 bags of coffee, each weighing 60 kilograms, which is a decrease of over 22% when compared to the 793,445 bags exported in the same period the previous year. While the ministry provided data on these changes, it did not offer specific explanations for the decline in both volume and earnings. The weakening of international coffee prices played a central role in this downturn. For several months prior, global prices had been at historically high levels due to concerns over limited supply and strong demand. However, in May, expectations of a larger harvest in Brazil—the world’s largest coffee producer—led to a relaxation of price pressures. This anticipated surplus helped ease fears of continued shortages, resulting in a downward adjustment in global coffee prices. Coffee remains a vital component of Uganda’s economy, serving as the country’s most important agricultural export and a crucial source of foreign exchange. It supports millions of smallholder farmers who rely on coffee cultivation for their livelihoods. As Africa’s leading coffee exporter, Uganda has made efforts to boost production through government initiatives aimed at improving seed quality and increasing farm output. The majority of Uganda’s coffee exports consist of robusta beans, though there has been a steady rise in arabica production in recent years. In response to challenges posed by fluctuating global markets, the Ugandan government has emphasized the importance of adding value to locally produced coffee. Encouraging local roasting and processing is seen as a strategy to enhance export revenues and reduce dependence on exporting raw beans. Officials believe that developing domestic value-added processes can help solidify Uganda’s standing in international markets while providing greater financial benefits to the national economy. Looking ahead, analysts suggest that global coffee prices will likely remain subject to various factors including weather patterns in major producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam, transportation costs, currency fluctuations, and overall global demand. Despite the recent dip in performance, Uganda’s coffee sector still stands as one of the country’s most resilient export industries. Nevertheless, the latest statistics highlight the extent to which export earnings are susceptible to variations in international commodity markets. As the situation unfolds, stakeholders within the coffee industry and policymakers will need to monitor developments closely. Strategies aimed at stabilizing export income and enhancing resilience against external shocks will become increasingly important. With ongoing efforts focused on diversifying production methods and promoting value addition, Uganda aims to navigate the uncertainties of the global coffee trade while maintaining its position as a key player in the international market.