Türkiye-TRNC pipeline could expand into strategic corridor: Analysts

Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) have initiated work on a subsea natural gas pipeline that could transform regional energy dynamics. The project, outlined in a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on July 10, aims to connect Anamur on Türkiye’s Mediterranean coast with Teknecik in the TRNC. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar revealed that the pipeline will span 101 kilometers, with 97 kilometers running offshore and four kilometers on land. Two 22-inch pipelines are planned, capable of operating in both directions, allowing natural gas to flow from Türkiye to the TRNC and vice versa, should future production emerge on the island. Analysts suggest the project may extend beyond its immediate purpose as an energy security initiative. Julian Bowden, a senior visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, noted that the combined capacity of the two pipelines exceeds the TRNC’s projected domestic demand. This implies the project could serve as a strategic export corridor, facilitating the movement of gas from Cyprus to Türkiye and possibly further to Europe. Bowden emphasized that the bi-directional design indicates ambitions beyond merely meeting local needs, pointing toward potential regional trade opportunities. Bowden also highlighted the current state of the Eastern Mediterranean gas market, where Israel relies heavily on Egypt as its primary export destination, while Egypt depends on Israeli gas to fulfill its domestic demand. He explained that Israel faces limited alternatives, making Egypt its sole viable export market. However, Egypt has shifted from being an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to an importer due to domestic shortages. As a result, Cyprus gas is increasingly directed to Egypt, which lacks sufficient LNG export capacity. Bowden suggested that a pipeline connection to Türkiye could provide a transformative shift, offering new export routes for Israel and Cyprus and potentially stimulating further exploration efforts. Sohbet Karbuz, director of oil and gas at the Mediterranean Organization for Energy and Climate, expressed optimism about the proposed route through the TRNC and Türkiye. He argued that the corridor could offer both geographical and economic benefits compared to existing export options. Karbuz noted that if new discoveries arise in regions such as offshore Lebanon, they could be transported to Europe via this system. Such a development could gradually reduce Europe’s reliance on volatile spot LNG markets, though current commercial arrangements remain in flux. Despite these potential benefits, political challenges persist. The TRNC, recognized only by Turkey, operates within a complex geopolitical landscape. Establishing a functional pipeline requires navigating legal, regulatory, and diplomatic hurdles. While the initial phase of the project is underway, experts caution that the timeline for full operation remains uncertain. Bowden indicated that planning, construction, and commercial negotiations are still in progress, and the project is unlikely to reach operational status before 2030. As discussions continue, the pipeline represents a pivotal step in reshaping the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy landscape. With its dual functionality and potential for expansion, the project could position Türkiye as a key player in regional gas trade. Whether it fulfills its ambitious vision will depend on overcoming ongoing obstacles and securing the necessary approvals and agreements. For now, the focus remains on advancing the project’s technical and logistical aspects, with eyes set on long-term implications for energy security and market dynamics.