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Türkiye sticks to disinflation despite higher near-term outlook
TR🏛️ PoliticsCenter9/7/2026

Türkiye sticks to disinflation despite higher near-term outlook

Turkey has announced its continued commitment to reducing inflation despite revised projections showing higher near-term inflation due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. According to the country's updated 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP), the year-end inflation forecast for 2024 is now expected to reach 28.4%, up from 16% previously estimated. This increase is attributed to the impact of the Iran war, which has added around 7 percentage points to inflation through both direct and indirect effects. Although Turkey's annual inflation rate slightly decreased to 31.51% in August from 31.75% in July, the government remains focused on achieving single-digit inflation by 2029. The MTP outlines strategies such as coordinating monetary, fiscal, and income policies, promoting competition in product markets, and improving supply-side capacity to restore price stability. Additionally, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will continue using all available policy tools to combat inflation, including maintaining an inflation-targeting regime and enhancing market transparency.

Türkiye has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing the disinflation process despite a revised inflation outlook influenced by recent geopolitical tensions. According to the 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP), released Sunday, the country anticipates an end-of-year inflation rate of 28.4%, an increase from the previously estimated 16%. This adjustment follows the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which officials attribute to a 7-percentage-point rise in inflation projections. Official statistics show that Turkey’s annual inflation rate dropped to 31.51% in August, down from 31.75% in July. The decline was initially slowed by a surge in energy prices linked to the Iran war. However, the MTP outlines a gradual reduction in inflation, projecting it to fall to 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028, and 9% by the end of 2029, returning to single-digit levels. A core objective of the MTP is to break inflation inertia and restore price stability by achieving single-digit inflation. To accomplish this, the government emphasizes the need for continued coordination among monetary, fiscal, and income policies, ensuring that demand conditions remain on a non-inflationary trajectory. Supporting this effort, the program highlights the importance of more favorable cost conditions and policies aimed at enhancing competition in product markets and boosting supply-side capacity. These measures aim to elevate Turkey’s production potential and sustain economic growth. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will persist in utilizing all available policy tools until price stability is firmly established. The bank will continue its inflation-targeting regime and maintain a floating exchange-rate system, allowing currency values to be determined by market forces. Communication strategies will be reinforced to align inflation expectations with official targets. In addition, the government plans to enhance public access to real-time pricing information via the “Market Prices” website, which provides data from major supermarket chains. This initiative seeks to improve market transparency and promote informed consumer behavior. The program also advocates for a shift in pricing mechanisms from reliance on historical inflation trends to expectations-based pricing. This change aims to reduce price rigidity and counter persistent inflation inertia. Administered and regulated prices will be adjusted to better match inflation forecasts and targets. Food price stability is another priority, with the government focusing on securing agricultural production and food markets. Price determinations for agricultural products will consider their effect on public finances, market dynamics, and program goals. Efforts will also be made to minimize the practice of basing prices on past inflation rates. Short- and long-term shifts in food and agricultural supply and demand, along with import and export trends, will be tracked using an early-warning strategy. Strategic agricultural production planning will incorporate factors such as supply-demand balance, self-sufficiency, water availability, and regional capabilities to bolster food security.

How this report was made. Objective News wrote this report from 2 source articles, using AI-assisted synthesis under our methodology. It is our own text, not a copy of any single outlet. Read our methodology.

Responsible editor: Matej BašaSpotted an error? Report it

2 reports

Daily Sabah logoDaily SabahParty-alignedCenterFactual 85Objective 809/7/2026
Türkiye sticks to disinflation despite higher near-term outlook

Turkey has announced its continued commitment to reducing inflation despite revised projections showing higher near-term inflation due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. According to the country's updated 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP), the year-end inflation forecast for 2024 is now expected to reach 28.4%, up from 16% previously estimated. This increase is attributed to the impact of the Iran war, which has added around 7 percentage points to inflation through both direct and indirect effects. Although Turkey's annual inflation rate slightly decreased to 31.51% in August from 31.75% in July, the government remains focused on achieving single-digit inflation by 2029. The MTP outlines strategies such as coordinating monetary, fiscal, and income policies, promoting competition in product markets, and improving supply-side capacity to restore price stability. Additionally, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will continue using all available policy tools to combat inflation, including maintaining an inflation-targeting regime and enhancing market transparency.

Bias read (Center): The article presents the Turkish government's economic strategy and inflation projections in a neutral tone, focusing on stated objectives and policy measures without overtly favoring any particular ideological stance. It includes quotes from officials and references the Central Bank of the Republic

Why factuality (85): The article provides specific inflation figures and projections from the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program, aligning with the cross-source consensus. It mentions the impact of the Iran war on inflation and cites the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) as a source. While some details are not f

Why objectivity (80): The tone remains neutral, focusing on the government's stated objectives and policy measures. There is no overt bias or emotional language, though the emphasis on Turkey's economic strategy may subtly favor a positive interpretation of the country's efforts.

Hurriyet Daily News logoHurriyet Daily NewsParty-alignedCenterFactual 85Objective 809/7/2026
New Medium-Term Program focuses on maintaining disinflation momentum

Turkey's government has outlined a new Medium-Term Program (OVP) for the years 2027–2029 aimed at sustaining the disinflation process and bringing consumer inflation down to single-digit levels. The plan projects annual consumer inflation to decrease gradually from 28.4% in 2026 to 9% by the end of 2029. Key strategies include coordinated monetary, fiscal, and income policies to guide domestic demand along a non-inflationary path, alongside measures to enhance competition in product markets and improve supply-side policies. The Central Bank will continue using all available tools to achieve price stability, while maintaining an inflation-targeting framework and floating exchange rate system. Additional efforts focus on aligning administered prices with inflation forecasts and strengthening food security through monitoring and strategic production planning.

Bias read (Center): The article presents the government's economic roadmap in a neutral tone, focusing on stated objectives and policy mechanisms without overtly favoring any particular ideological stance. It outlines projections and strategies without apparent bias toward either pro-market or interventionist positions

Why factuality (85): This article corroborates the key inflation figures and projections from the same Medium-Term Program. It references the same policy goals and institutional sources (Central Bank, OVP) as the first article, maintaining consistency with the cross-source consensus. The information presented is factual

Why objectivity (80): The language remains objective, presenting the government's plans and economic indicators without apparent bias. However, the focus on 'maintaining disinflation momentum' and 'price stability' may slightly imply a positive outlook, though this is common in economic reporting.

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