Italian tourism, the Xenia-Nomisma analysis: in the first quarter of 2026 attendance at +7.5% and increasingly decisive international demand

The Italian tourism sector recorded a 7.5% increase in overnight stays during the first quarter of 2026, according to the analysis conducted by Xenia and Nomisma under their “Mapping Tourism Opportunities” project. This growth was driven primarily by international demand, which continues to play a decisive role in shaping the industry’s performance. The findings highlight a resilient sector amid challenging economic conditions, including rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and subdued domestic consumption. In 2025, Italy welcomed 138.4 million arrivals and saw 476.9 million overnight stays, maintaining its position as the fourth-largest destination in Europe by arrivals and the second-largest by overnight stays. These figures represent 15% of the continent's total overnight stays, underscoring the country’s continued appeal to international tourists. The hospitality sector remained the primary channel for visitors, accounting for 67.7% of arrivals and 60.4% of overnight stays. Hotel bookings grew by 1.4% compared to the previous year, with an average stay duration increasing to 3.1 nights, indicating a shift toward more mature, quality-driven travel experiences. The study, based on extensive desk research using both primary and secondary data sources, identified several structural trends influencing the tourism landscape. Global economic growth slowed due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East and fluctuating energy prices. Inflation in Italy has risen, impacting households and businesses alike. The gap between wage growth and inflation remains negative, at -7.1 percentage points, reflecting a loss of purchasing power not yet fully recovered since 2021. Domestic consumption remains cautious, with over 70% of household budgets allocated to essential expenses such as rent, utilities, transportation, and healthcare, leaving limited room for discretionary spending. As a result, consumers have become more pragmatic in their choices, with 42% of Italians prioritizing savings when making decisions. Despite these challenges, the tourism sector has shown resilience, particularly through international demand. In 2025, foreign visitors accounted for 56% of total overnight stays, reinforcing the structural internationalization of Italy’s tourism market. While domestic arrivals remained stable, the influx of international travelers contributed significantly to overall growth. The sector’s ability to attract overseas visitors highlights its competitive advantages and adaptability in a complex global environment. Looking ahead, the first quarter of 2026 presents encouraging signs for the tourism industry. Arrivals increased by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025, while overnight stays rose by 7.5%. These figures suggest a positive trajectory, supported by ongoing efforts to enhance visitor experience and maintain competitiveness. The success of the tourism sector in this context reflects broader economic dynamics, including the interplay between consumer behavior, policy support, and global market trends. The continuation of this upward momentum will depend on sustained investment in infrastructure, marketing, and services tailored to evolving traveler expectations.