Trump stops short of endorsing Bibi as his campaign falters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself navigating a precarious political landscape as he attempts to balance the expectations of his right-wing supporters with the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump, less than two months before Israel’s national elections on October 27. The tension comes amid ongoing military operations in Gaza and shifting dynamics in U.S.-Israel relations, which have grown increasingly complex as both leaders face domestic challenges. Netanyahu and Trump met in the Oval Office two weeks ago, during which Trump reportedly inquired about Netanyahu’s poll numbers. According to a U.S. official familiar with the conversation, Netanyahu’s adviser responded by asserting that the Israeli leader was “winning.” However, recent polling data suggests otherwise. Netanyahu’s current coalition holds between 49 and 53 seats, significantly below the 68 seats it currently controls and the 61 required to form a government. Meanwhile, opposition parties hold between 67 and 70 seats, putting Netanyahu in a vulnerable position. His chief rival, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, enjoys stronger favorability ratings in most polls, further complicating Netanyahu’s prospects. Despite these difficulties, Netanyahu does not need to win outright to stay in power. His primary goal is to prevent the opposition from forming a government without the backing of Arab-Israeli parties. Should this scenario unfold and neither side manage to secure a majority, Netanyahu could remain as a caretaker prime minister for several additional months until new elections are held. This outcome is considered plausible at present. The evolving relationship between Netanyahu and Trump has become a focal point of international attention. Initially, Trump’s advisors believed the U.S. president would publicly endorse Netanyahu, particularly after Trump advocated for a pardon to end Netanyahu’s corruption trial. However, as the conflict with Iran escalated and the war dragged on, differences emerged between the two leaders on key issues such as Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. These discrepancies have widened over the past three months, creating growing friction between them. According to two senior U.S. officials, although Trump personally respects Netanyahu, he has grown frustrated with certain decisions and policies made by the Israeli leader. One person close to Trump reportedly said, “Bibi is his own worst enemy,” reflecting concerns within the administration about Netanyahu’s actions. Recent tensions have been exacerbated by Netanyahu’s public rejection of Trump’s Gaza Board of Peace plan aimed at disarming Hamas. A senior U.S. official described Netanyahu’s comments as politically motivated rather than a definitive policy stance, emphasizing that the White House understands Netanyahu’s electoral considerations as long as he complies with U.S. requests, particularly regarding restraint in attacking Gaza. In response to pressure from the U.S., Netanyahu recently spoke with Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner and committed to giving the Gaza disarmament proposal serious consideration, despite his reservations. He also pledged to limit attacks on Gaza to facilitate the demilitarization process. Following these assurances, Israel has reduced its airstrikes against Gaza, and the IDF has retreated to the Yellow Line, aligning with the terms of the proposed agreement. Kushner is scheduled to visit Israel next week to meet with Netanyahu and other officials to discuss the Gaza initiative further. Behind the scenes, Netanyahu faces resistance from within Israel itself. Political rivals such as Eizenkot and former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have raised concerns about Trump potentially endorsing Netanyahu. These individuals have allegedly communicated with Trump and his advisors through intermediaries, urging neutrality. A former U.S. official noted that Netanyahu’s declining popularity has discouraged Trump from taking a firm stance, despite the latter’s strong appeal among Israeli voters. Trump’s influence in Israel has waned slightly, though he remains a prominent figure there. As the election approaches, the interplay between Netanyahu’s domestic struggles and his relationship with Trump will likely continue to shape the geopolitical landscape in the region.