In the US, 7 out of 10 do not trust Trump to recognize a Republican defeat in legislative elections: poll; he says there is "a lot of fraud"

President Donald Trump and the Republican Party face unfavorable polling data ahead of the United States midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. A potential defeat could jeopardize the political future of the administration and threaten the loss of the congressional majority currently held by Republicans. Voters will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, comprising 35 of 100 seats. The economy remains the primary concern for voters, mirroring the sentiment that helped return Trump to power two years ago. However, current economic indicators, including persistent inflation and rising energy costs, have eroded support for the incumbent party. The forecast for the election is grim for the ruling party. Prediction firm Decision Desk HQ assigns Democrats a 75 percent probability of winning the House of Representatives, projecting a majority of 234 to 201. In the Senate, Democrats hold a slight advantage with projections suggesting a narrow 51 to 49 victory. The House holds critical powers over Pentagon funding and agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and it can initiate numerous investigations into the Trump administration, his family, and associated businesses. This strategy mirrors the approach taken during Trump’s first term, when Democrats attempted twice to impeach him through House votes that ultimately failed in the Senate. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House, has pledged to ensure accountability for alleged criminal acts. He stated that if his party secures a majority, it would seek to reverse Trump’s tariffs, end U.S. involvement in the war with Iran, and restore health insurance subsidies. A Democratic win in the Senate would allow them to block Trump’s nominees for the judiciary and cabinet positions. Meanwhile, Trump has launched an extensive campaign tour, visiting swing states nearly daily alongside Vice President JD Vance. To bolster turnout, Trump made extravagant promises, including offering $5,000 to each American voter if Republicans maintain their congressional majority. Public trust in the integrity of the upcoming vote is divided. An Ipsos survey conducted for ABC News and The Washington Post found that seven out of ten Americans doubt that Trump would accept a Republican defeat. Only 28 percent of citizens believe he would accept an unfavorable outcome. Among Democratic voters, this distrust reaches 94 percent. Conversely, 63 percent of Republicans expect their leader to accept the results if he loses, while 74 percent of supporters aligned with the MAGA movement share this view. Despite these doubts regarding the executive branch, approximately six in ten Americans are confident that the November elections will be fair and accurate. This confidence drops to 51 percent among independents. Economic factors play a central role in the current political climate. The Consumer Price Index stands at 3.7 percent annually, driven partly by high energy tariffs. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, with disapproval reaching 64 percent. Data from Silver Bulletin indicates that Trump began his second term with slightly more than 50 percent support, which declined to 37 percent by early October, while opposition rose to 61 percent. The administration initiated a conflict with Iran in February, a move that has had immediate impacts on gasoline prices and inflation. Although Trump recently reached an agreement with Moscow regarding diesel fuel supplies and urged Ukraine and Russia to cease attacks on energy infrastructure, inflation remains above the target level set by the Federal Reserve. Demographic shifts further complicate the landscape for Republicans. Hispanic voters currently prefer Democratic candidates by a margin of 64 percent to 31 percent, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of surveys at Emerson College. Analysts note that polls may underestimate the Republican vote, a trend observed in 2024. However, the confusion within the Republican base regarding the unpopular war in Iran contributes to Democratic optimism. Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University, confirmed that the opposing party traditionally holds a favorable position before midterms. Trump acknowledged this historical pattern, stating that whether a president is good or great, they typically lose midterm elections. The electoral map shows extreme fragility in the House of Representatives. Of the 18 seats classified as critically competitive, 14 belong to Republican legislators. More than 40 districts are considered key battlegrounds. The national generic ballot poll shows an opposition lead ranging between seven and nine percentage points. This dynamic aligns with the thermostat model of voting, where the public adjusts its preferences in reaction to policy changes. When conservative agendas shift toward extremes, the electorate mobilizes opposition as a corrective mechanism. The burden of governing increases when executive decisions diverge from median voter preferences, and inflation acts as a catalyst for retrospective voting that punishes material deterioration in household finances. Republican strategists warn that bastions such as Texas are sounding alarms, particularly where a Democratic senatorial candidate poses a serious threat. While Trump managed to secure victories for nearly all his primary candidates, some of these individuals have faced challenges. The disconnect between ideological goals and the reality of household budgets accelerates Republican vulnerability. For Mexico, the transmission of risks operates through direct financial channels, with restrictive monetary policy and exchange rate volatility exerting severe pressure on bilateral trade flows. Uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies increases the vulnerability of value chains under the USMCA. The short-term scenario presents five structural risks. Extreme volatility among independent voters threatens to expand legislative defeats beyond baseline projections. Persistent inflation and elevated interest rates continue to depress household purchasing power. Uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy heightens vulnerabilities in regional supply chains. Exchange rate sensitivity exposes Mexican exporting sectors to external financial shocks. Finally, the unpredictable response from the White House to a potential legislative defeat anticipates a period of high institutional friction. As the election approaches, the focus remains on how these economic and geopolitical pressures translate into voter behavior on November 3.