After rising by almost 6% since the end of May, the dollar has woken up: is there any reason to sound the alarm?

On Monday, July 6, the Argentine peso weakened against the U.S. dollar, with several key exchange rates showing increases. The blue dollar, which operates outside the official market, closed at 1,495 pesos for buying and 1,515 pesos for selling. Meanwhile, the official dollar rate set by the Bank of the Nation Argentina (BNA) ended the day at 1,460 pesos for purchase and 1,510 pesos for sale. Other notable rates included the MEP dollar, used in stock market transactions, which closed at 1,521.10 pesos for buying and 1,525.10 pesos for selling. The CCL dollar, which includes interest adjustments, was quoted at 1,569.20 pesos for buying and 1,569.70 pesos for selling. Additionally, the credit card dollar rate stood at 1,963 pesos, while the crypto dollar traded at 1,554.66 pesos for buying and 1,557.32 pesos for selling. The country’s risk rating, measured by the JP Morgan index, reached 408 basis points. The recent rise in the dollar has sparked renewed attention among analysts and economists. According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank on July 6, participants have adjusted their projections upward for the exchange rate. The median estimate for the average exchange rate in July stands at 1,482 pesos per dollar, reflecting a correction of 35 pesos compared to previous forecasts. For December 2026, the projected rate is 1,673 pesos, indicating an annual increase of 15.5% from December 2025. Analysts within the top 10 group, known for accurate past predictions, anticipate a slightly lower figure of around 1,621 pesos. The trajectory outlined by the REM suggests a gradual increase over the second half of the year, rather than abrupt changes. Projections indicate the exchange rate will reach approximately 1,513 pesos in August, 1,548 pesos in September, 1,589 pesos in October, 1,621 pesos in November, and finally 1,673 pesos in December. This distribution indicates a steady climb throughout the period, influenced by factors such as seasonal currency availability, financial stability, and economic programs. The movement of the dollar does not occur in isolation. The initial five months of 2026 had been marked by relative stability, contributing to controlled inflation expectations and maintaining financial predictability. However, the REM highlights that the market no longer anticipates complete dollar stability, projecting a higher nominal exchange rate by year-end. Over the next 12 months, the median expectation is 1,805 pesos per dollar, surpassing previous estimates. Comparing this with earlier REM data shows a consistent upward trend across all time frames. For July, the estimation increased by 34.8 pesos; for August, 36.9 pesos; for September, 31.6 pesos; for October, 36 pesos; and for November, 23.7 pesos. This adjustment reflects a broader shift in market expectations across the entire exchange rate curve. Despite the increase, some experts suggest the current situation is more of an adjustment rather than the beginning of a new crisis. The Institute of Studies on Argentine and Latin American Reality (IERAL) notes that the official dollar rate still remains 18% below the upper limit of the government's band system, set at 1,815 pesos. In real terms, the exchange rate has returned to levels similar to March and continues to be 10.3% below the start of the year. This moderate increase could serve as a buffer against international shocks, preventing excessive pressure on reserves or interest rates. Factors influencing the dollar's rise include the strengthening of the U.S. dollar internationally, driven by expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the United States. This led to capital flows moving towards safer assets, reducing the appeal of investments in pesos. Additional pressures came from corporate energy sector purchases of foreign currency for dividends and the collection of mid-year bonuses, increasing retail dollarization during June and July. The Central Bank continued its process of accumulating reserves, purchasing 1.418 billion dollars in June and adding another 256 million in early July. Year-to-date, the central bank has accumulated 11.430 billion dollars, surpassing the previous record. However, the pace of accumulation slowed, with daily averages dropping from 100 million to 64 million dollars. This slowdown reflects greater private demand and reduced supply flow compared to the stronger phase of agricultural exports.