October 22 weather: cold front and heavy rains in the country; this is expected in the CDMX

Mexican weather authorities forecast intense rainfall and cold temperatures for Thursday, October 22, driven by Cold Front Number Three and a new low-pressure system. The National Meteorological Service, known as SMN, warned that these phenomena will bring heavy downpours to multiple regions, including Mexico City. In the capital, residents can expect cloudy skies, fresh morning air, and isolated afternoon showers accompanied by lightning. Temperatures in Mexico City are estimated to range from a high of 22 to 24 degrees Celsius and a low of 12 to 14 degrees Celsius. Winds from the north will blow at speeds of 10 to 25 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching up to 50 kilometers per hour. The SMN detailed that low-pressure channels over western and southeastern Mexico, combined with moisture inflow from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, will generate showers and strong rain across the northwest, east, center, west, south, and southeast. Intense rains are predicted for tonight and early Thursday in Veracruz and Oaxaca. Very heavy rain is expected in Tabasco and Chiapas, while strong rain will affect Baja California, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Michacan, Guerrero, Puebla, Campeche, and Quintana Roo. Cold Front Number Three will extend over the northwest of Mexico. It will interact with a cyclonic circulation and polar and subtropical jet streams. This interaction will cause showers with strong rain and wind gusts in that region. Additionally, conditions favor the possible formation of tornadoes in northern Sonora and northwestern Chihuahua. A mass of polar air will maintain north winds and elevated waves along the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. This air mass will keep mornings and nights cold or fresh in entities of the Northern Plateau, Central Plateau, and eastern and southeastern states. In the Valley of Mexico, the sky will remain cloudy throughout October 22. Mornings will feature fresh air, while high zones will experience cold conditions with fog banks. Afternoons will be mild, with probabilities of showers in the State of Mexico and isolated rain in Mexico City. These rains may include electrical discharges. The SMN issued alerts noting that strong rains could be accompanied by wind gusts and hail. Such conditions might raise river and stream levels, trigger landslides, and cause flooding in low-lying areas. Strong wind gusts pose risks of toppling trees and signs. Separate from the continental front, Tropical Depression Twenty-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Vance in the Pacific Ocean. The storm is located approximately 835 kilometers south of Acapulco, Guerrero, and 1,170 kilometers south-southeast of Manzanillo, Colima. According to forecasts, Vance could intensify into a hurricane while moving over open Pacific waters. Authorities are monitoring its trajectory and evolution. The cyclon will reinforce moisture entry into national territory from Thursday, October 22, through Saturday, October 24. This increase in humidity will boost the probability of showers and intervals of strong to intense rain in southern and western Mexican states. Waves generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting coastal zones in the south and southwest this weekend and continue into the following week. Official data indicates the system has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gusts up to 75 kilometers per hour. It is moving westward at 11 kilometers per hour. Projections suggest Vance will reach Category 1 hurricane status on Thursday, October 22, positioned 775 kilometers south-southwest of Punta Maldonado, Guerrero. By Friday morning, it is expected to reach Category 2, escalating to Category 3 by Friday afternoon, at which point it would be 610 kilometers from the Mexican coast. During Saturday, the hurricane is projected to descend to Category 2, maintaining that intensity through Sunday and Monday. It will approach Punta San Telmo, Michoacan, before continuing its path 415 kilometers from Manzanillo, Colima. Despite these projections, the system currently remains offshore and distant from the Mexican coast. Consequently, the Mexican National Meteorological Service stated that the phenomenon does not represent a direct impact on national territory. However, officials recommend that the public stay informed through official notices regarding any changes in intensity. The Commission for National Water and the United States National Hurricane Center have noted the potential for rapid intensification. While some models predict a Category 3 landfall in Colima and Michoacan, current assessments emphasize the lack of immediate domestic effects. Meteorologists advise caution regarding the combination of the cold front and the tropical system. The convergence of these elements creates a complex weather pattern across the country. Residents in affected areas should monitor local updates. The risk of hydrological emergencies remains elevated due to the saturation of soils from previous rains and the incoming moisture. Wind speeds associated with the cold front are particularly dangerous in exposed areas. The potential for tornadoes in the northwest adds another layer of hazard for communities in Sonora and Chihuahua. In Mexico City, the specific threat lies in localized flooding and traffic disruptions caused by sudden downpours. The temperature drop from the polar air mass will make evenings feel significantly colder. Drivers should exercise extra care during the transition from morning fog to afternoon showers. Public services are preparing for potential emergency calls related to minor floods and power outages. The overall situation requires vigilance from both government agencies and citizens to mitigate risks associated with severe weather events.