View from The Hill: Burke struggles to wrangle numbers as opposition and One Nation apply heat on migration

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has delayed a scheduled speech at the National Press Club, originally intended to announce major reforms to Australia’s migration system. The postponement comes amid ongoing political pressure to address public discontent over high net migration rates, particularly following a post-pandemic surge that saw more than half a million people arrive in 2023. The government has faced mounting criticism from opposition parties, including One Nation and the Coalition, which have called for stricter controls on immigration. The speech, initially set for Thursday, was withdrawn by Mr Burke on Tuesday afternoon. While no official explanation was given for the delay, a government source confirmed that the speech will be rescheduled shortly. According to three unnamed officials familiar with the planning process, Mr Burke had been finalizing a comprehensive package of measures aimed at significantly reducing net migration. Cabinet discussions on the proposal reportedly occurred earlier in the week, indicating that the plan was well underway before its postponement. The proposed reforms include several key elements designed to curb migration flows. These measures encompass tighter regulations on family visas, a limit on the number of temporary workers, particularly backpackers, who can enter the country, and restrictions on the work and appeal rights of asylum seekers. Internal debates within the government have reportedly been intense, reflecting the complexity and sensitivity of implementing such sweeping changes. Net migration into Australia has remained consistently above Treasury forecasts, despite efforts to manage the influx. This trend has been attributed to a combination of factors, including pent-up demand that built up during the pandemic when international travel was largely restricted. Additionally, policies encouraging existing migrants to extend their stays contributed to the rise in numbers. Before the 2025 federal election, the Albanese government introduced restrictions on international student numbers, resulting in a decline to just over 300,000 net overseas migrants in the latest data. However, these figures continue to exceed expectations. In preparation for the anticipated announcement, Mr Burke implemented several quiet adjustments to migration policy last month. These included a significant increase in visa application fees, which were not officially announced but became effective on July 1. Budget documents released in May indicated that the government expects to generate an additional $1.2 billion in revenue from visa fees this financial year, representing a 24 percent increase over previous projections. Furthermore, Mr Burke issued two ministerial directives instructing officials to prioritize onshore applicants over offshore ones for permanent skilled and family visas. Exceptions were made for individuals working in law enforcement and defense sectors. This approach mirrors strategies used previously to limit the number of international students, effectively creating a temporary pause for applicants who are deprioritized. This measure could lead to a reduction in the overall number of overseas arrivals. Additional reforms are expected to target the family visa process. Under the proposed changes, spouses, children, and parents of Australian citizens and permanent residents would no longer be able to apply for family visas while residing in the country as tourists. This change aims to address the long-standing issue of backlogs in processing family applications, which often result in extended waiting periods. Currently, family members who apply while visiting on tourist visas can transition to bridging visas, allowing them to work and access healthcare services while awaiting permanent residency approval. Removing this option would force these individuals to wait overseas until their applications are resolved, potentially impacting their ability to maintain residency status.